In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, November 28th
Truce in Gaza Extended by Two Days, Vietnam and Japan Elevate Ties to Strategic Partnership, and other stories.
Truce in Gaza Extended by Two Days
Qatar has announced a further extension of a truce in fighting over Gaza between Israel and Hamas. The pause in violence follows an earlier temporary 4-day agreement facilitated with U.S. support, which included staged hostage releases. This ceasefire prolongation aims to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza while securing additional hostage returns with the potential to make the calm permanent.
Thus far, dozens of hostages, mainly Israeli citizens along with some foreigners, have been freed in incremental batches based on truce adherence. But issues remain, and final releases were still pending when Qatar mediated the open-ended truce renewal. With Gaza facing devastation, the precarious deal's ability to enable reconstruction and prevent renewed clashes remains uncertain. Yet some momentum does exist for progress if negotiated compromises are upheld.
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Finland Closes Russia Border
Finland is shutting all its land border crossings with Russia after accusing Moscow of deliberately orchestrating a flood of asylum seekers as an "influence operation" amid heightened tensions. With nearly 1,000 migrants recently attempting to enter, Helsinki alleges hybrid warfare aims to destabilize security without open conflict after its decision to join NATO.
Having already closed 7 checkpoints over smuggling concerns, Finland's government says new information affirms a systematic Russian effort is underway, risking national security. While cargo rail traffic continues, people now must apply at airports and ports instead. With relations fraying since the invasion of Ukraine, the border crisis spotlights Finnish vulnerability even as it signals resolute defiance of suspected Russian coercion. Yet defiant resistance also signals no hesitation on the NATO accession despite pressures. Still, an escalatory spiral could endanger ratification timelines if border instability persists.
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Asia's Non-Aligned States Cautious on Western Posture Toward China
Key Indo-Pacific countries still hold guarded views on the long-term commitments being made by the United States and Europe in the region and the risk of inflaming tensions with China. Officials particularly in non-aligned states fear the West's competitive stance could spark destabilizing confrontation that disproportionately harms their region.
So while US allies Japan, Australia and South Korea embrace Western coordination against Beijing, others like India, Indonesia and Vietnam are keen to balance against China but remain wary. Concerns persist over disjointed Western economic initiatives and technology disputes, undermining unity. And the Indo-Pacific concept itself lacks unified definition. With perspectives varying greatly, adapting policies to account for complex regional reservations will help determine if Western engagement proves stabilizing or combustible.
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Niger Drops Anti-Migration Law in Defiance of the EU
Niger's military government has scrapped a 2015 law criminalizing transporting migrants north towards Europe. The decision ends an 8-year EU security partnership aimed at curbing migration flows to Europe that local critics condemned as Western imposition on Africa.
While the EU justified the anti-smuggling restrictions with reduced migration figures, underground routes simply replaced orderly transit, causing deaths and disappearances. Domestically, Niger aims to bolster its legitimacy and calm tensions by distancing from European interests. But the open defiance of Brussels spotlights the limits of external pressure on the West African nation since last year's coup. France in particular faces questions on why more pressure failed to sway its former colony. For Niger's impoverished north, however, restoring freedom of movement likely brings welcome relief.
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Vietnam and Japan Elevate Ties to Strategic Partnership
Vietnam and Japan have formally upgraded bilateral relations to a "comprehensive strategic partnership during a Vietnamese presidential visit to Tokyo. The closer alignment spotlights Vietnam's rising regional role as global supply chains shift due to China-US tensions, bringing an influx of investment to the Southeast Asian country.
The leaders pledged broadened security cooperation and working on defence tech transfers, while highlighting shared concern over China's maritime actions. With Vietnam also having recently inked strategic accords with the United States, its strategic position amid competing Asian powers is providing plenty of opportunities. But securing tangible economic gains remains key to sustaining any momentum in Vietnam's delicate balancing act between rival blocs.
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UK Absent as New India-Europe Corridor Takes Shape
The recent announcement of the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor notably excludes the United Kingdom in the major US-led geo-economic initiative. Spanning an historical region of British strategic interest, London's absence appears to represent a lost opportunity for influence as the corridor takes shape.
As the UK navigates its post-Brexit “Global Britain” role, participation could have bolstered economic ties and standing with major Asian powers. More significantly, steering corridor dynamics would enable shaping the new Euro-Asian architecture to align with the UK's interests. With the oversight now fixed, the challenge shifts to finding avenues for influencing the project's trajectory before core foundations solidify. Active lobbying remains viable, but risks grow of key decisions on connectivity and infrastructure made with limited UK input.