In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, November 15th
Iran and Turkey Turn Away Refugees from Afghanistan, NATO Security Councils in Session Following Missile Strike in Poland, and other stories.
Iran and Turkey Turn Away Refugees from Afghanistan
Roughly a quarter of a million Afghan refugees have reportedly been deported from Iran and Turkey since the start of this year.
Authorities in Afghanistan’s southwestern province of Nimroz say roughly 190,000 Afghans have been deported by Tehran in the last six months alone. According to the Turkish interior ministry’s migration management office, at least 92,583 undocumented Afghans have entered the country as of last month, Of those, 57,174 have been sent back to Afghanistan.
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How the UAE Shapes US Foreign Policy
The US intelligence community has expressed concerns about the UAE’s efforts to influence policies. A classified National Intelligence Council report is said to have outlined illegal forms of influence exhibited by the UAE in the United States.
Publicly available information has also demonstrated that the UAE operates one of the largest legal influence operations in the United States. Nearly every congressional office is said to have been contacted by lobbyists representing Abu Dhabi, with the reported aims to have involved arms sales to the UAE, fostering greater distrust of Iran, promoting the Abraham Accords, and many other key policy decisions.
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North Korea’s Shifting Deterrence Strategy
North Korea's strong response to joint military exercises recently conducted by the United States and South Korea provides insights into Pyongyang's new escalation capabilities, and may represent a longstanding shift in North Korea's deterrence strategies.
North Korea is likely to expand its areas of military action and operations as it seeks to reshape the political and security environment around the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang sees US-South Korean military exercises as an existential threat to the regime, and will continue to use its military demonstrations to emphasize the threat of increased risk toward their adversary by expanding capabilities.
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New US Sanctions Target Russia’s Military Suppliers
The United States has imposed new sanctions on a list of people and firms that Washington accuses of involvement in supporting Russia’s military. The latest financial and diplomatic penalties target a range of entities, including a French, Swiss and a Taiwanese company.
The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control and the State Department designated 14 people, 28 entities and eight aircraft identified as being part of a transnational network that procures technology for the Russian military. All the entities are accused of being financial facilitators or enablers of Russia’s military supply chain, which the US has committed to disrupting.
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NATO Security Councils in Session Following Missile Strike in Poland
A number of NATO member states have convened their national security councils after a missile reportedly killed 2 people in Poland. The 2 suspected rockets landed in the Polish border town of Przewodów, with investigations into the incident still ongoing.
Poland is raising its military readiness and is reportedly in the process of “verifying if we need to activate NATO Article Four.” Article 4 of the treaty allows any member-state to call for consultations to take place when the “territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any of the parties” is threatened; discussions within NATO then focus on whether the threat exists and how to counter it. However, this may not be necessary as the missile strike is most likely a failed interception by Ukrainian anti-air systems.