In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, November 30th
US Global Force Posture to Remain Largely Unchanged and Germany Quietly Urges the US Not to Sanction Nord Stream 2
US Global Force Posture to Remain Largely Unchanged
After a nine-month review of the way US military forces are deployed around the world, the Pentagon has concluded its latest Global Posture Review (GPR). This most recent iteration of the document comes before a new National Defense Strategy is set to be drafted by the Biden administration in 2022, and offers a glimpse into long-term US military posturing the world over. But rather than a large shift in resources, the review concluded that no major strategic changes are needed. While the summary of the GPR released by the Pentagon assesses the priority areas for US deployments military personnel, the review does not mention the future posture of space, cyber or nuclear capabilities, and is only applicable to conventional US forces stationed abroad.
The summary underlined the Indo-Pacific region as the priority theatre for US forces going forward. China was acknowledged as the pacing challenge, and the GPR calls for drastic infrastructure improvements in the region which prioritize the construction of military facilities. This would see the US military invest in logistics, fuel storage, munition storage facilities, as well as airfield upgrades in Guam, Australia and the Northern Mariana Islands. Moreover, the GPR includes mention of that an attack helicopter squadron and artillery division headquarters will be permanently stationed in the Republic of Korea. Surprisingly, the report made no indications that bolstering US positions in the Indo-Pacific will come at the cost of permanent deployments elsewhere as forces are largely staying put.
As the guidance asserts an approach which emphasizes diplomacy in a bid to strengthen the country’s network of allies, the GPR leaves the posture of US forces in the Middle East and Europe largely unchanged. In Europe, the summary states the goal of cultivating greater cooperation between NATO forces in order to strengthen a “combat-credible deterrent” against Russia. In the Middle East, the review promises to strengthen missile defence capabilities while continuing counter-terrorist operations in both Iraq and Syria. The review indicates that despite rumours of a potential withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and Syria, Washington will remain an active player in the region while a more thorough analysis on enduring posture requirements in the Middle East is being conducted.
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Germany Quietly Urges the US Not to Sanction Nord Stream 2
Germany is urging US Congressional members not to apply sanctions to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. At a time of heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and as the situation on the border between the two continues to raise fears of a wider military conflict, the new German government has reportedly warned members of Congress in the US that sanctions on the pipeline could damage transatlantic relations. But since the pipeline promises to bypass the energy transit infrastructure of Ukraine, Kiev considers the project an existential threat to its security. This puts the US in a difficult position, as it attempts to bolster ties with allies while also reassuring officials in Kiev of steadfast support against Russia.
According to reports published in Axios, Germany has been quietly urging the United States not to sanction the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The report details warnings sent to members of US Congress that a reimposition of sanctions by the Biden administration would weaken the credibility of the US while also damaging transatlantic unity. German officials are reported to have said that the Russia-to-Germany natural gas pipeline does not pose harm to Ukraine, and that Berlin has taken the appropriate steps to ensure that greenlighting the pipeline would not pose a threat to Kiev. Moreover, German officials argue that — despite the warnings of US members of Congress — granting certification to Nord Stream 2 will put European or German energy security at risk.
The German plea comes at a time when some Senate Republicans, dissatisfied with the approach of the Biden administration in the matter, are calling for a new round of sanctions in an amendment to the upcoming annual defence bill. While the certification process prevents the pipeline from starting operations, the suspension could be short-lived due to Europe’s low reserves of energy. As temperatures fall across Europe, some countries in the EU may be eager to tap into Russian gas supplies, adding an element of pressure to the matter of certifying the pipeline that goes beyond Berlin. Nevertheless, the pipeline would almost certainly mean Ukrainian transit infrastructure would be, in whole or in part, circumvented, thereby eliminating one of the last remaining bargaining chips Kiev possesses against Russia. For US policymakers, the pressure to preserve positive ties with Berlin while simultaneously standing up for Kiev's interests therefore poses something of a headache.
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