In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, November 26th
Israel and Lebanon Agree to 60-Day Ceasefire, Malaysia and South Korea Form Strategic Partnership, and other stories.
Israel and Lebanon Agree to 60-Day Ceasefire
Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire beginning November 27 at 4am local time (02:00 GMT). The agreement includes a 60-day Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and deployment of Lebanese Army forces (approximately 5,000 troops) to the region. A United States-led oversight committee will monitor implementation, with hundreds of soon-to-be-deployed French soldiers as part of a UN peacekeeping mission.
This ceasefire represents a strategic inflection point driven by mutual war exhaustion and US diplomatic pressure. Israel's acceptance reflects a pragmatic assessment that it has achieved sufficient degradation of Hezbollah's capabilities while facing challenges with reservist mobilization. Hezbollah's agreement suggests a need to regroup after significant losses, while claiming a political victory by preventing full Israeli occupation. The implementation mechanism, involving Lebanese Army deployment and international oversight, attempts to create a sustainable security architecture. However, the agreement's success remains vulnerable to periodic violation.
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Turkey Seeks US Waiver After Gazprombank Sanctions
Turkey has opened negotiations with the United States for a sanctions waiver to maintain its Russian gas payments through Gazprombank. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar confirmed the discussions, as Turkey faces disruption to its energy supplies, which comprise 40% of its gas imports from Russia. The talks mirror Turkey's existing exemption for Iranian energy transactions.
Turkey stands between Western sanctions policy and energy security needs. With Turkish-Russian gas contracts set to expire in 2026, Ankara must either secure payment alternatives, accelerate energy diversification, or risk disruption to critical supplies. The Turkish banking sector has already begun limiting transactions with sanctioned Russian banks, while Russian Ambassador Aleksei Erkhov predicted a decline in Russian-Turkish trade by year's end.
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Tajikistan Opens Diplomatic Channel with the Taliban
Tajikistan under President Emomali Rahmon is navigating a complex shift in its Afghanistan policy. Since the Taliban's 2021 return to power, Tajik security chief Saimumin Yatimov has visited Kabul for bilateral talks. Economic developments include ongoing electricity exports to Afghanistan and the revival of the CASA-1000 power project.
Tajikistan's potential rapprochement with the Taliban represents a strategic recalculation driven by regional economic integration pressures and emerging security threats. The shift risks undermining Tajikistan's long-standing position as a frontline state against militants, which has attracted substantial international aid and security assistance. This dilemma illustrates the paradox where regional stability could actually reduce Tajikistan's strategic importance and access to international support. Across Central Asia, pragmatic engagement with the Taliban is becoming the norm, potentially isolating Tajikistan's historically hardline stance.
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Malaysia and South Korea Form Strategic Partnership
Malaysia and South Korea formalized a strategic partnership on March 25, 2024, during PM Anwar Ibrahim's three-day visit to Seoul. The agreement encompasses defence cooperation, building on a $920 million FA-50M fighter jet deal from May 2023, and targets a free trade agreement by 2025. Current bilateral trade stands at $25 billion (2023), with Malaysia ranking as South Korea's third-largest ASEAN trade partner. The partnership includes deals on critical minerals, carbon capture technology, and tourism.
This partnership reflects broader Indo-Pacific economic and security dynamics, where middle powers are strengthening bilateral ties amid great power competition. South Korea gains access to critical minerals and ASEAN market expansion opportunities, while Malaysia secures advanced technology transfer and defence modernization capabilities. The agreement strategically positions both nations in critical supply chains, particularly in semiconductors and green technology. The partnership also demonstrates Malaysia's strategic diversification of international partnerships and South Korea's expanded influence in Southeast Asia beyond traditional economic engagement.
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Jordan Faces New Regional Pressures
Jordan faces multiple concurrent pressures on its stability. The Muslim Brotherhood's political wing won 31 of 138 parliamentary seats in September's elections with 31% voter turnout. Along its borders, Iranian-backed militias have increased their presence on the Iraqi frontier, while weapons smuggling networks operate across the 360 km Syrian border. Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank is causing Palestinian displacement.
Jordan's position between competing regional interests has grown more complex. The Brotherhood's new parliamentary presence enables it to voice public discontent over Jordan's Israel ties from within the political system. Iranian influence extends through Iraq and Syria via militia proxies and smuggling networks, as Israeli actions in the West Bank create potential demographic pressures. The Hashemite monarchy's long-standing approach of managing domestic, regional, and international relationships faces new tests as these dynamics intersect. Jordan's continued role as a regional actor may depend on how effectively it addresses these concurrent challenges.
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US Establishes Military Task Force in Philippines
The Pentagon publicly revealed a new US military unit in the Philippines called Task Force-Ayungin during Defence Secretary Austin's visit on November 19, 2024. This unit helps Philippine forces protect their claimed waters in the South China Sea, particularly around Second Thomas Shoal, where tensions with China have flared over the past year. The US has provided the Philippines with several unmanned boats for surveillance and pledged $500 million in defence aid.
This public announcement marks a shift in how the US supports its allies in Southeast Asia. By openly acknowledging its military presence and support role, Washington is sending a clear message to Beijing about its commitment to the Philippines, while carefully avoiding direct confrontation. The focus on helping Philippine forces monitor their waters, rather than direct US involvement in stand-offs with China, shows a deliberate balance between deterrence and restraint. The timing suggests this is both a preventive measure against future incidents and part of broader US efforts to strengthen partnerships in the region as a counterweight to growing Chinese influence.