In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, October 17th
Qatar's Growing Alignment with the United States, Azerbaijan's SOCAR in Loan and Crude Supply Deal with Lukoil, and other stories.
US Deploys Additional Forces to Aid Israel
The United States has deployed more troops to assist Israel as the threat of a wider regional war looms. In response to Israeli preparations for a ground invasion of Gaza, Iran has issued a strong statement, warning it may get militarily involved if Israeli forces enter Gaza. Tehran has proxy groups that could open new fronts by attacking Israeli and US targets, which makes the Iranian threat credible.
The crisis appears to be spiralling out of control. As the Israeli bombardment of Gaza persists, and as the Israeli air force conducts strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, pressure is growing on outside actors to intervene. While posturing can signal commitment, miscalculations loom large. If Iran were to become involved, it would have multiple means by which to conduct attacks directly and via proxies, threatening to open new fronts in the war. For now, an expanded war still appears avoidable, but the risks are climbing daily.
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Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran Spearhead New Transit Corridor
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran are advancing plans for a new transit corridor connecting Asia to Europe. This builds on recent cooperation to streamline regulations and fees. But past agreements have stalled due to underdeveloped infrastructure and geopolitics. With Russia now sidelined, there is fresh impetus to restart talks. However, turning plans into reality still faces hurdles.
The prospective corridor exemplifies shifting connectivity calculations. Russia's dominance is declining, allowing Central Asian states to reorient ties. But converting proposals into functional networks is complex. Technical capacity, funding, regional disputes and instability pose challenges. For the partners involved, both economic and geopolitical motivations are at play. If successful, the project could fundamentally reshape regional dynamics. However, geography and poor infrastructure still impose harsh limitations on Eurasian interconnectivity.
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Qatar's Growing Alignment with the United States
Qatar's decision to support the freezing of Iranian funds marks a significant shift in its foreign policy, illustrating a deepening alignment with the United States. Previously, Doha had carefully balanced its ties with various global powers but is now tilting towards the Western sphere, primarily driven by a series of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply deals with Europe. This alignment is further reinforced by their cooperation against Iran, highlighting the strategic bonds between Qatar and the US.
The US is actively cementing its partnership with Qatar through energy diplomacy. Qatar plays a pivotal role in anchoring Western energy security as a major LNG exporter. The strategic importance of Qatar as an energy supplier cannot be understated, as it aids US allies in diversifying energy sources and reducing dependence on Russia. Qatar's shift from neutrality to alignment is undoubtedly a geostrategic win for Washington. However, this move also carries risks. As Qatar firmly aligns itself with the US, it becomes increasingly entangled in regional power dynamics and conflicts. Qatar's alignment with the US may make it a target or draw it into disputes.
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Azerbaijan's SOCAR in Loan and Crude Supply Deal with Lukoil
Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR has struck a deal with Russia's Lukoil under which Lukoil will lend SOCAR $1.5 billion and supply up to 200,000 barrels of Russian crude per day to SOCAR's STAR refinery in Turkey. The agreement aims to overcome sanctions-related obstacles to SOCAR purchasing Russian oil. Neither Azerbaijan nor Turkey has sanctioned Russia, but SOCAR's trading arm must comply.
The SOCAR-Lukoil pact underscores the complex impact of sanctions on energy ties. Azerbaijan treads carefully to preserve Russia relations amid a strict sanctions regime. The loan-for-oil deal provides a creative workaround. But the optics of enabling Russian oil exports while officially neutral on the war in Ukraine are tricky. For SOCAR, securing supply for its refinery is paramount. However, opaque Russian financing risks reputational pitfalls, and may invite retaliation from the EU or the United States.
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Kamikaze Drones Reshaping Modern Warfare
Kamikaze drones like Russia's Lancet and improvised Ukrainian models are proving highly effective on the battlefield, destroying hundreds of armoured vehicles in the war so far. Makeshift defences like nets offer limited protection. Electronic countermeasure (ECM) jammers show promise, but are not foolproof. Keeping forces dispersed is a tactical adaptation. Militaries worldwide must urgently rethink tactics and technology to counter the threat.
The use of drones in Ukraine highlights rapid changes in warfare. Swarms of small suicide drones can overwhelm defences and devastate forces concentrated for conventional manoeuvre warfare. This shifts advantage to defenders and compels force dispersion. Adapting will require new military doctrine that increases emphasis on the use of ECM and anti-drone weapons. But the affordability of military drones may allow less wealthy armed forces to impose high costs on strong militaries. The era of ubiquitous drones demands urgent rethinking of hardware, tactics and force structure.
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US Expands Restrictions on Semiconductor Exports to China
The United States has announced expanded restrictions on exporting advanced semiconductors and chip making equipment to China. Companies like Nvidia and AMD will face licensing requirements or outright bans on selling certain high-performance chips. The policy intensifies technology tensions between the superpowers, but tries to limit damage to US firms. However, China's chip ambitions will experience a setback, likely compelling greater self-reliance efforts.
The chip curbs demonstrate an escalating technology race. For the US, blocking China's chip progress safeguards military advantages, albeit at some economic cost. For China, the challenge is developing domestic alternatives amid widening access gaps. Tensions will likely climb, but an outright decoupling remains difficult given supply chain intricacies. Meanwhile, the ripple effects across industries and geopolitics will be profound. Semiconductor dominance is inexorably tied to future prosperity and power.