In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, October 3rd
Turkey Responds to Ankara Bombing with Airstrikes in Northern Iraq, UN Approves Multinational Force for Haiti, and other stories.
Turkey Responds to Ankara Bombing with Airstrikes in Northern Iraq
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) claimed responsibility for a suicide bomb attack on government buildings in Ankara on Sunday. Turkey responded with airstrikes on PKK targets in northern Iraq, detaining dozens of suspects linked to the group. The PKK insurgency against the Turkish state has killed over 40,000 since 1984. The group is designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US, and EU.
The bombing signals potential escalation by the PKK after years of relative calm. The group may aim to strengthen its hand militarily after peace talks collapsed in 2015. However, provoking Turkey risks imperilling the PKK's Syrian affiliate, the SDF, which partners with the US. Turkey could use PKK attacks within its borders to justify action against SDF-held areas in Syria. But the PKK has limited options beyond sporadic bombings, given Turkey's counterterrorism capabilities. While concerning, this incident alone likely does not fundamentally shift the strategic landscape.
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Hungary Resists Pressure to End Nuclear Cooperation with Russia
Hungary remains committed to its nuclear energy partnership with Russia despite the Ukraine war. Budapest continues to import Russian nuclear fuel and is moving ahead with Russia's Rosatom building two new reactors at the Paks nuclear plant under a 10 billion euro deal. Hungary has resisted EU efforts to sanction Russian energy firms. The country aims to extend the lifespan of its existing Russia-built reactors as it becomes increasingly dependent on nuclear power.
Hungary's unwavering nuclear cooperation enables Russia to circumvent Western sanctions. It also gives Moscow lingering strategic influence in an EU and NATO member state. Hungary's stance prevents unified EU action against Russia's nuclear sector. However, Budapest insists it has no alternative given its rising electricity needs. While frustrating EU unity, Hungary's entrenched energy ties with Russia appear unlikely to shift barring major domestic political changes. But its defiance may deepen rifts between Hungary and other EU members over Russian policy.
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US Visa Bans Raise Stakes in Bangladesh Election Stand-off
The United States has imposed visa restrictions on Bangladeshi citizens over concerns about the “integrity” of upcoming elections. The US and UK have pressed Bangladesh to hold “free and fair” elections. Bangladesh's foreign minister dismissed criticism as “false propaganda” and suggested some want to sow “chaos” in the country. Tensions are rising as the US pressures Bangladesh's government.
The election friction carries strategic implications amid Bangladesh's delicate balancing of powers. Deteriorating relations with the West could push Bangladesh closer to China. However, too overt a shift may jeopardize Bangladesh's garment exports to the West. For now, visa bans alone have not been enough to sway Sheikh Hasina. Moreover, a suddenly unstable Bangladesh could provide openings for extremism. The situation underscores challenges in balancing values and interests in maintaining favourable trade links despite divergent interests.
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UN Approves Multinational Force for Haiti
The United Nations Security Council has approved sending a multinational force to Haiti. The one-year mission will be led by Kenya, with other nations like Jamaica providing personnel. Haiti's government has struggled to contain gang violence and requested foreign assistance. While the force aims to help Haitian police retake territory, past interventions faced backlash.
The mission provides a narrow window to enforce security in Haiti before elections can be held. Various local militias in residential areas will challenge operations. Moreover, resentment over past UN missteps are likely to resurface. For the UN, managing local perceptions will be key for mission acceptance. Strategically, the force helps counter instability that often spills into the region. Yet, lasting gains require Haiti to rebuild institutions and address root causes of violence. Without political and economic progress, a foreign force offers questionable relief.
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Iraq's Unfulfilled Vow to Cut Iranian Gas Imports
Iraq has again pledged to end gas imports from Iran within two years as domestic megaprojects come online. But past promises to achieve self-sufficiency have gone unfulfilled, despite Iraq's huge gas reserves. Iraq remains reliant on Iran for power generation, with gas imports paid for in oil due to US sanctions. New projects that could capture flared gas have seen little progress.
Iraq's failure to develop its gas sector carries strategic implications amid global energy realignments. Reduced Iranian dependence would aid US efforts to sway Iraq westward. This could weaken Tehran’s hand, increasing the likelihood of advancing nuclear talks on US terms and boosting European gas supply options. A genuine shift rests on executing projects, not just making pledges. Until then, Iraq's unrealized gas promise will continue enabling Iranian influence.
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Coalition Talks Ahead After Slovakia's Smer Secures Victory
The Smer party has won the most votes in Slovakia's early elections. Smer, led by former PM Robert Fico, took 22.9% of the vote. The liberal Progressive Slovakia party came second with 17.9%. Coalition talks are expected between Smer, the moderate Hlas party, and the nationalist SNS party. A Smer-led government would likely moderately scale back support for Ukraine and increase friction with the EU. However, major policy shifts appear unlikely given Slovakia's economic dependence on the EU.
A more populist Slovakian government could strategically complicate EU policymaking. Smer could obstruct sanctions on Russia and climate initiatives. Its partnership with nationalist parties in Hungary and Poland may also embolden their confrontational stances. However, Slovakia's fiscal reliance on EU funds will deter drastic action. While a Smer coalition may chip away at EU cohesion, its room for manoeuvre is limited. Overall, the election outcome highlights the persistent appeal of populism across Central Europe. Managing resulting tensions will test the EU's resilience. But this result alone is unlikely to drastically realign Slovakian foreign policy.