In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, October 31st
Refugees a Source of Tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan, Belarus Assumes Complex Role in Balancing Autonomy and Assistance, and other stories.
Refugees a Source of Tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan
Tensions are rising between Pakistan and Afghanistan over Pakistan's order for 3.7 million Afghan refugees to leave by November 1st. At recent talks, Afghanistan condemned the "inhumane" decision. Pakistan is using pressure tactics to get Kabul's cooperation against terror groups like the TTP finding safe haven in Afghanistan. Though the Taliban claims some actions against the TTP, Pakistan sees little impact. Deporting refugees risks humanitarian crisis and bilateral ties.
Despite interdependence, refugee tensions test Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. Pakistan relies on Taliban ties, while Afghanistan needs economic links through Pakistan. But goodwill erodes over inaction on militant attacks. Harsh refugee policies may force a break. However, both need cooperation despite rivalries. Pakistan's pressure gambit is risky if Afghanistan calls its bluff. Blowback could undo a fragile balance. With instability within and between them, minimizing tensions is imperative, but domestic politics drives wedge issues.
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China Expands Economic and Strategic Ties in Central Asia
China recently signed billion-dollar deals with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other Central Asian states, expanding economic ties and strategic influence in the region. Major agreements focus on transport routes, trade, energy, and technology cooperation. Kazakhstan inked $16 billion in deals boosting overland cargo transit and railway infrastructure. Uzbekistan saw Chinese investment surge fivefold with accords on sectors like metallurgy and renewables. Turkmenistan is collaborating on gas pipelines and "technical cooperation."
China's extensive commercial agreements and regional engagement have profound geopolitical implications. They solidify its economic centrality and integration with Central Asian republics. New projects like gas pipelines increase strategic interdependence. But lopsided trade flows highlight risks of economic dependence for these states. Meanwhile, collaborations on transnational transport and security help project Chinese influence westward. Through mega-deals, China is translating its economic sway into strategic gains along its borderlands. This expands its regional security role while checking Western involvement in Beijing's backyard.
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US Buys Japan's Seafood in Bulk to Offset China's Import Ban
The United States has begun bulk purchasing Japanese seafood to supply its military there, in response to China's import ban over Japan's Fukushima wastewater release. China, previously Japan's top seafood buyer, banned imports citing safety concerns. Initial volumes are small but expected to expand across seafood types. The move aims to counter damages from China's trade tactics against Japan.
The US seafood procurement represents both economic support and symbolic pushback against China's pressure campaign. But its practical impact may be limited if volumes stay modest. Broader efforts to expand market access could bolster Japan's seafood industry more substantially. However, the bigger message is the willingness to counter China's economic statecraft. Matching coercion with coercion risks continued trade weaponization. More durable solutions lie in strengthening collective economic resilience.
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Expansion in the US Rocket and Missile Propulsion Market
The rocket and missile propulsion market in the United States is seeing increased activity as demand rises amid global conflicts. L3Harris' acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne expands its role as a major supplier. Other firms like Anduril and X-Bow are also entering the sector dominated by just two key providers.
Companies aim to increase investments and supply chain resilience to meet surging missile production needs. Heightened geopolitical tensions are fuelling military demand and growth projections for the rocket motor industry. But concentration poses risks, spurring new investments to diversify the supplier base. While benefiting firms in the short term, persisting global conflicts could incentivize longer-term overexpansion. But for now, additions to capacity provide options to mitigate supply chain strains.
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Israel Launches Ground Operations Deep into Gaza
Israel has launched deep ground incursions into Gaza. Israel is gradually intensifying its offensive, using the raids to gather intelligence and pressure Hamas over remaining hostages. Israel aims to carve out buffer zones in Gaza and transition to sustain long-term incursions. But advance remains slow amid urban combat risks.
The expanding Israeli ground operation aims to decisively undermine Hamas's control of Gaza. But urban warfare promises to be grueling. Israel is buying time to set conditions to facilitate longer-term Gaza operations. But the costs and complications of sustained military entanglement grow. With no exit strategy in sight, the conflict shows signs of becoming a quagmire. Gaza's future governance remains uncertain. The military and diplomatic dilemmas suggest the offensive may leave Israel more entrenched but no more secure.
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Belarus Assumes Complex Role in Balancing Autonomy and Assistance
Belarus has played an important, complex role in Russia's war on Ukraine. It enabled Russia's initial invasion from the north. More recently, Belarus hosted Russian nuclear weapons and Wagner mercenaries. In return, Russia boosted financial support for Belarus' economy. But Belarus also avoided direct combat involvement, reflecting Minsk's divergent interests from Moscow. Alexander Lukashenko maintains autonomy by making himself indispensable to Russia's war effort.
Lukashenko aims to leverage Belarus' usefulness to Russia to maximize control and aid. But fundamental tensions persist as Moscow seeks Belarus' subordination. Lukashenko's best outcome is prolonged stalemate in Ukraine, avoiding decisive Russian victory or defeat. Outright Russian success or escalation risks loss of autonomy or regime stability. Belarus' precarious position shows how smaller powers must carefully balance alignment with larger patrons. For now Minsk sustains narrow room to maneuver, but its position remains tenuous amid broader geopolitical turbulence.