In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, October 19th
Poland Deploys Thousands of Troops to Its Border with Belarus and The African Continental Free Trade Agreement
Poland Deploys Thousands of Troops to Its Border with Belarus
In September, Poland declared a state of emergency in response to thousands of illegal immigrants crossing the border from Belarus. The Polish Border Guard has said that unlawful border crossings have reached record highs, prompting Poland to reinforce its border with Belarus. With over 3,000 troops already operating along the Polish-Belarussian border, the defence minister of Poland has now announced a surge of a further 3,000 personnel.
In late August, in anticipation of a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, Warsaw began the construction of a 2.5-meter-high fence along its 418-kilometer border with Belarus in an effort to stem the flow of illegal immigrants. The security measures were taken in part due to credible fears of a migration crisis caused by the Taliban takeover. At the same time, Poland and Lithuania have both reported a rise in illegal border crossings, placing the blame on the Belarussian government for forcing migrants across the border. The issue appears to be getting worse, as Polish officials recently announced plans to spend more than $400 million on improving its border security by building a solid wall along the border with Belarus.
Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kamiński justified the deployment of an additional 3,000 troops on the grounds that the number of illegal crossings has not fallen despite an increase in guards and soldiers on the border. The Polish interior ministry claims that since January, the Polish Border Guard has prevented 9,287 attempts to cross the border from Belarus into Poland. Both the European Commission and Warsaw attest that the flow of illegal immigrants is being orchestrated by Belarus as a form of hybrid warfare, a charge Belarus continues to deny. Nonetheless, the Polish decision to reinforce its border with an additional troop deployment will — whether by design or not — work to exacerbate an already tense relationship.
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The African Continental Free Trade Agreement
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a continent-spanning free trade zone formed in 2018. AfCFTA is aimed at creating a single continental market in Africa, which, if successful, will enable its signatories to access the free movement of goods, persons, and investments. Fifty-four countries have thus far signed the agreement and 30 countries have already ratified the document with the African Union Commission. The free-trade area is the largest in the world in terms of the number of participating countries, and so has the potential to lift countless people out of poverty by connecting the economies of Africa.
Africa’s marginalisation in world affairs is nothing new. One look at the continent’s share of global trade paints a picture of stagnation, even at a time when African countries have undergone intensive economic liberalisation programs. While in the early 1980s, Africa’s share of world trade averaged around 6 percent, today it is closer to 3 percent. Raw materials and commodities continue to dominate exports across the continent, while the manufacture of basic goods is increasingly being imported. This collapse of production across the continent has generated joblessness and done little to alleviate the high levels of poverty.
Nevertheless, Africa has immense potential. The continent is vastly rich in natural resources, and home to some of the largest deposits of minerals in the world. Many of these minerals are rare earths and other precious elements which have a significant role to play in the rapid technological advancements of the 21st century. Above all, Africa has a massive domestic market which is growing faster than any other in the world, with Africa today accounting for more than 16 percent of the world’s population. AfCFTA promises to take advantage of this growing market by establishing a continental trade system, enabling African countries to tap into the wealth of the continent in a transformative and mutually beneficial way.
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