In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, October 26th
Japan's Army Holds Largest Military Drill in Decades and China’s Hypersonic Weapons and US Missile-Defence
Japanese Army Holds Largest Military Drill in Decades
Even though Japan has a US-imposed pacifist constitution since World War II, the country is rapidly boosting its military capabilities. While the Japanese military remains a purely self-defence force, it is increasingly a force to be reckoned with. Prohibited from acquiring weapons for offensive military operations, Japan has nevertheless gradually bolstered its armed forces significantly. At a time of heightened tension in Asia and the Pacific, Japan has raised some eyebrows by holding its largest-ever military exercise in three decades.
The environment in which the drills are taking place resemble the harsh geography of the Senkaku Islands, a likely flashpoint in a potential US-China conflict. Involving over 100,000 personnel, 20,000 ground vehicles, and 120 aircraft, the exercises are massive in scale for a military which cannot, by law, conduct operations abroad. To many in the region, the scale of the exercises has given the impression that Japan is preparing for war, but Japanese military officials maintain that the exercise is not a preparation for conflict against any particular country. Nevertheless, military exercises of such a scale are rare, and rarer still for a country like Japan to conduct.
The United States has long enjoyed overwhelming influence and military presence in the region, which has largely remained unchallenged. All that changed quickly when China took over Scarborough Shoal, and began the construction of air fields and supply stations intended for military use. The lack of a credible response to this incident, and several others since then, has led many in the region to question the primacy of US military power. This has caused some concern in Tokyo, where policymakers have expressed fears of China’s ability to project military power beyond its borders.
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China’s Hypersonic Weapons and US Missile-Defence
The US defence community has expressed shock following a hypersonic missile test conducted by China. China is said to have tested a new hypersonic glide vehicle utilising its Long March 2C orbital launch vehicle, which took a south polar flight trajectory into low-earth orbit. The rocket released a hypersonic glide vehicle that circled the globe in low polar orbit before landing several kilometres from its intended target. While China claims it was testing a non-military space vehicle, the test has raised questions in Washington about the ability of existing US missile defence systems in countering a missile following such a trajectory.
If China has indeed tested a hypersonic glide vehicle capable of circumnavigating the globe in low-earth orbit, policymakers in Washington would be justified in questioning the efficacy of current US missile defence systems in countering such a weapon. The combination of a low-flying and highly manoeuvrable hypersonic glide vehicle would not only enable China to circumvent existing missile-defence and early warning systems, but also those still in the works. The manoeuvrability of such weapons would allow China to strike at the United States through the south, where its early warning radars and missile-defence systems are spread thin, and thereby catch Washington by surprise.
US early warning systems are comprised of multiple systems and a diverse set of sensors. Missile tracking begins with a network of infrared satellites finetuned to detect and track the launch of an ICBM through its flight. Simultaneously, advanced early warning radars and a range of other sensors provide radar tracking which allows the launch of missile interceptors. The US missile defence system consists of 40 ground-based interceptors in Alaska and four in California, with 20 more expected to be deployed by 2023. US missile-defence systems are designed to intercept a limited ICBM attack, and would not be able to counter a large-scale nuclear salvo by a peer competitor. But hypersonic weapons have changed the equation, and US missile-defence systems may not be capable of countering a manouverable glide vehicle.
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