In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, October 24th
Stalemate Persists in Sudan's Ongoing Civil War, Ukraine Expands Covert Operations with CIA Assistance, and other stories.
Stalemate Persists in Sudan's Ongoing Civil War
Despite recent gains, Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary seem unable to decisively defeat the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in their months-long civil war. Fighting has now spread across most of Sudan's states, with more armed groups joining in. Thousands have died amid clashes over key military bases and towns. Neither side looks close to victory, pointing to a protracted conflict with mounting humanitarian costs.
A drawn-out war risks widening Sudan's divisions and complicating eventual peace efforts. As historical grievances resurface, ethnic violence could grow, further displacing civilians. Continued fighting also endangers Sudan's oil infrastructure, threatening patronage networks and stability in both Sudan and South Sudan. With peace talks distant, the conflict looks poised to exacerbate instability in an already volatile region. Avoiding worst-case outcomes requires urgent international mediation and aid to Sudanese civilians caught in the crossfire.
Read more about this story here.
Jordan's King Abdullah II Balancing US Alliance and Public Outrage
The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has ignited protests in Jordan against Israel and the US, putting pressure on King Abdullah II. With the public outraged over Gaza casualties, cancelling a summit with Biden avoided inflaming tensions. Abdullah must balance the US-Jordan strategic alliance with popular anger and demands to cut relations with Israel.
The crisis reveals Jordan's strategic dilemma. If Israel invades Gaza, the fallout in Jordan could be severe. Abdullah is navigating demands for action while trying to sustain stability. While dependent on US aid, the majority Palestinian population is infuriated by the bloodshed in Gaza. Further inflaming matters, many non-Palestinian tribes also reject Israel. But options like cutting ties seem risky for the kingdom's stability. For now, allowing some dissent may release pressure. But mass sentiment appears sharply at odds with Jordan's alignment with Israel and the US.
Read more about this story here.
South Africa's Call with Hamas Strains Ties with the US
A reported call between South Africa's foreign minister and Hamas has revived tensions with the US over Pretoria's Middle East stance. It comes after earlier US concerns about South African arms transfers to Russia. With South Africa set to host a major US-Africa trade summit, some in the US Congress may question its eligibility for key US trade benefits.
The episode highlights the strategic dilemma South Africa poses for US policy. While Washington values the partnership, South African positions often diverge on issues like Israel-Palestine and Russia. With complex internal politics, Pretoria resists external pressures. As it balances non-alignment with Western ties, disagreements will persist. Yet both sides see an interest in insulating economic links from geopolitical disputes. Managing divisions amid shifting global dynamics will define US-South Africa relations going forward.
Read more about this story here.
Ukraine Expands Covert Operations with CIA Assistance
Ukraine's intelligence services have dramatically expanded their covert capabilities since 2014 with extensive CIA support, enabling attacks deep within Russia's borders. Elite teams trained by the CIA have targeted infrastructure and carried out assassinations. While earlier covert operations focused on military targets in occupied areas, recent attacks using drones to strike Moscow buildings also aim to deter and demoralize the Russian public.
As Ukraine embraces unconventional and often lethal tactics against Russia, it risks unintended consequences down the road. With the West cooperating with Ukraine's intelligence services but avoiding direct involvement in operations, boundaries have become blurred. If covert actions causing indiscriminate deaths persist, it could strain Western public support and backing for Ukraine. While effective covert operations certainly assist Ukraine's defence against Russia, exercising restraint and focusing on clear military targets is likely the wiser strategic course for the long-term.
Read more about this story here.
Afghan Central Bank Reserves Still Held in Switzerland
Billions of dollars in foreign reserves belonging to the Afghan central bank currently face an uncertain future. A fund established in Switzerland has been entrusted with overseeing approximately $3.5 billion in these reserves, but, as of now, no funds have been released due to unmet conditions. The economic situation in Afghanistan has grown increasingly dire, and these withheld reserves could potentially play a crucial role in stabilizing the country's economy. Unfortunately, they remain inaccessible.
On the one hand, preserving Afghanistan's reserves is a move by the United States aimed at preventing potential misuse against US interests. On the other, the immobilization of these funds poses a risk to the well-being of ordinary Afghan citizens. The prolonged delay in releasing these assets is exacerbating the economic hardships faced by the Afghan people. Unfreezing the funds is not a straightforward process, as it necessitates assurances to the US against misuse. However, imposing extensive conditions can be counterproductive.
Read more about this story here.
Afghan Canal Project Raises Concerns Over Regional Water Security
A controversial canal project in Afghanistan is sparking alarm in neighbouring Central Asian nations over water security. The Qosh Tepa canal aims to provide irrigation to vast farmland but would divert water from the Amu Darya River, which flows through Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Uzbek President Mirziyoyev has urged joint assessment of the canal's downstream impact. But the Afghan government plans to forge ahead, stoking tensions.
The canal project is an example of broader transboundary water tensions in the region. Unilateral diversion by upstream states can destabilize economies reliant on irrigation downstream. While Afghanistan cites national development needs, other nations fear far-reaching consequences. Effective regional mechanisms to equitably share water resources remain absent. As Central Asia's water supplies become strained, the lack of cooperation risks escalating competition. Preventing a water conflict will require proactive diplomacy to balance needs.