In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, September 13th
Armenian and Azeri Forces Clash, Egyptian Navy to Lead Red Sea Maritime Task Force, and other stories.
Armenian and Azeri Forces Clash
Fighting erupted overnight between Armenian and Azeri forces along their volatile shared border, leaving troops dead on both sides according to defence ministries in both Baku and Yerevan. The escalation marked the latest flare-up in violence since a ceasefire was agreed that marked the end of the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have blamed each other for the escalation in hostilities. While both countries agreed to a momentary ceasefire to halt a flare-up in hostilities, reports indicate the agreement fell apart just minutes later. Armenia said that Azerbaijani forces broke the ceasefire by conducting intensive artillery shelling against Armenian military positions in the direction of the cities of Goris, Sotk, and Jermuk. On the other hand, Azerbaijan’s officials accuse Armenia of “large-scale subversive acts” near the districts of Dashkesan, Kelbajar and Lachin. The governments of Russia, the United States and France are all calling for restraint, while Turkey has sided with Baku by calling for Armenia to cease “provocations” against Azerbaijan.
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Taiwan’s Energy Vulnerability
Taiwan’s continued economic prosperity is contingent on a stable geopolitical environment. Taiwan is critically important in a geopolitical sense because of its strategic location guarding access to and from the Western Pacific and because of the leading role the island plays in producing advanced semiconductors. Yet Taiwan’s economy and its manufacturing prowess is highly dependent on steady, reliable sources of energy.
Taiwan is an island with no physical power interconnections with neighbouring countries. There are very few domestic sources of energy available: hydro power storage is limited by a lack of adequate river systems, solar power is limited by available land, geothermal energy is limited by suitable locations, and there are no domestic sources of fossil fuels. In addition, there is considerable opposition to nuclear power, dams, and onshore wind installations. Taiwan is therefore almost totally dependent on imports for its energy requirements.
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Germany’s Transatlantic Dependency
German foreign policy pundits have warned of new tensions in the transatlantic alliance caused by the supposed looming decline of the United States. The threat of political instability in the United States weighs heavily on Germany at a time of increased competition against Russia and, possibly even against China. Deteriorating relations with Beijing and Moscow will cultivate a dependency on its alliance with the US.
This growing hostility among the major Eurasian powers means that for the foreseeable future, Berlin will be militarily dependent on Washington. This dependency could prove detrimental for Berlin within the transatlantic alliance as Washington and London are set on a power struggle against China in the Pacific. Powerful sectors of the German economy are opposed to hostile ties with Beijing as they are highly dependent on China as a production and development site. As Germany scrambles for new sources of energy, Berlin must also seek out substitute markets for the loss of business from and within Russia, a reality which may soon also affect its considerable trade with China.
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Egyptian Navy to Lead Red Sea Maritime Task Force
The United States has passed on leadership of its new Combined Task Force 153 — a multinational maritime security operation set up to patrol Middle Eastern waters — to Egypt. Task Force 153 was established by the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet to combat smuggling and other activities in the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandab and the waters off Yemen.
The head of all US forces in the Middle East met with top Egyptian military officials in Cairo, where both militaries celebrated Egypt’s new role as head of the Task Force. Egypt joined the US-led Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) last year and become the 34th member in doing so. Task Force 153 is the fourth such grouping under the US-led CMF, all of which are multinational maritime security groupings that pool resources of US allies to patrol Middle Eastern waters.