In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, September 12th
Venezuela's Resilient Economy Challenges US Sanctions, The Economic and Political Fallout of the Earthquake in Morocco, and other stories.
The Economic and Political Fallout of the Earthquake in Morocco
On September 8, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck Morocco's Marrakesh-Safi province, leaving over 2,500 dead and thousands injured. The quake disrupted transportation, tourism, and businesses, especially in the city of Marrakech, which is a major tourism hub. This comes as Morocco already faces economic challenges from drought and inflation.
The earthquakes will likely harm Morocco's economic growth into 2024. Reconstruction costs will be high as infrastructure and buildings need rebuilding. Tourism may not rebound quickly if facilities are unsafe. The loss of agricultural yields around Marrakech will increase reliance on expensive imports. If the government response is seen as slow, public anger could mount, forcing out the elected government. Morocco's key allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE may need to provide substantial economic aid to stabilize the country. The quakes will exacerbate Morocco's economic troubles and could even spur political change.
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Geography as an Aid to Statecraft
Geography has long shaped relations between states and informed grand strategy. Early geopolitical thinkers like Mahan, Mackinder, and Spykman analysed how geographic factors like terrain, resources, and location affected foreign policy. Their geopolitical theories became influential in strategic education in the US. However, mainstream IR theory later marginalized geographic analysis in favour of more abstract concepts like power and polarity.
Yet geography still quietly underpins IR concepts today. It shapes states' objectives, capabilities, and strategic orientations. But scholars often use geography narrowly, overlooking its nuances. As technology alters distance and climate change transforms geography, fully incorporating lessons from classical geopolitics can improve analysis. Ultimately, the geographic context remains relevant as long as states exist territorially. A renewed focus on geography's asymmetry, relativity, and comprehensiveness can provide useful perspectives on enduring challenges.
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Venezuela's Resilient Economy Challenges US Sanctions
Despite strict US sanctions on Venezuela since 2019, the country's economy is showing signs of growth under President Maduro. Venezuela has managed to rebuild its oil industry with assistance from Iran, boosting production 40% from 2021 levels. The economy grew 8% in 2022, defying US efforts to pressure the Maduro government. Meanwhile, Juan Guaido, the opposition leader recognized by the US as interim president, has lost political standing and fled Venezuela.
With sanctions failing to dislodge Maduro, calls are growing to potentially ease sanctions if reforms are undertaken. The US has indicated openness to relaxing certain oil sanctions if conditions are met, but Maduro seems unlikely to allow US-sponsored political parties to freely participate in elections anytime soon. As Venezuela's crisis and economic suffering continue, US policy faces challenges. Easing some sanctions could aid Venezuela's economy and people, but may also empower Maduro. Still, Venezuela's international political situation remains complex and unstable.
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Poland Calls for EU Extension on Ukrainian Grain Import Ban
Poland has called on the EU to extend a ban on Ukrainian grain imports beyond October 15th to protect its farmers. As one of several Eastern European nations that imposed an EU-approved embargo on Ukrainian corn, wheat, sunflower, and rapeseed from April to September 15th, Poland’s position remains unchanged. Prime Minister Morawiecki said Poland will extend the ban itself if the EU doesn't act.
Paragraph 2: Ukraine has threatened WTO arbitration over the import ban, saying it harms trade without justification. The embargo highlights tensions between Poland's support for Ukraine in the war and its protection of domestic interests. While Poland seeks to aid Ukraine's exports, it wants to shield its farmers from competition. The dispute illustrates the complex economic impacts of the war across Eastern Europe. As reconstruction approaches, balancing solidarity with Ukraine against local political and economic pressures poses challenges.
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US Issues Sanctions Waiver for Transfer of Frozen Iranian Funds
The United States has granted a sanctions waiver, allowing for the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian funds frozen in South Korea to Qatar. This move is aimed at facilitating the release of five Americans held by Iran. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized that these funds can solely be used for humanitarian trade. This decision holds significance in ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran and may have broader implications for international relations.
The waiver carries substantial implications for international relations. It may serve as a precedent for future hostage negotiations and potentially provide Iran with additional resources, which could be channelled into various activities, including its nuclear program. However, it could also signify a positive step toward mitigating longstanding tensions between the US and Iran. Regionally, this decision might reshape the dynamics in the Middle East, as Iran's release of American prisoners could be interpreted as a goodwill gesture. Nevertheless, it could also be viewed as a sign of vulnerability, possibly influencing other countries in the region.
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New India-Middle East-Europe Corridor Emerges
During the recent G20 summit in New Delhi, an initiative was introduced by the United States, India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, France, Germany, Italy, and the EU — the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC). This ambitious project envisions a vast multimodal transit corridor spanning over 3,000 miles, establishing crucial connections between India, the Arabian Gulf, and Europe. Comprising both an eastern and a northern corridor, the IMEC promises to create a seamless ship-to-rail network, fostering trade between India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Europe.
While the IMEC serves as an alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it also signifies the deepening economic ties between India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This project underscores the evolving economic integration between the Middle East and South Asia, recognizing India's growing significance in a multipolar world. Moreover, for the United States and the EU, the IMEC represents a shift in their perception of Gulf states beyond their role as energy producers, indicating a desire to cultivate more multifaceted relationships. By involving India in the Gulf, the US seeks to reshape the dynamics of the region, counterbalancing China's economic influence. Although India's alignment with US interests may be partial, its involvement is poised to challenge China's position in the region.