In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, September 5th
France in Talks to Withdraw from Niger, Russia and Saudi Arabia Extend Oil Production Cuts, and other stories.
France in Talks to Withdraw from Niger
France has reportedly started discussions with Niger's military about withdrawing some of its troops, one month after a coup overthrew France's ally President Bazoum. The talks signal France's acceptance that the coup leaders will remain in power, despite initially disputing their legitimacy. A French withdrawal would mark a further blow to its influence after recent force departures from Mali and Burkina Faso after coups there.
While details are uncertain, redeploying some troops regionally could limit the impact on counterterrorism efforts in the nearer term. However, the era of large French garrisons in the Sahel appears to be ending. This reflects both deteriorating relations with West African governments and their citizens' increasing desire for sovereignty. Over the longer term, although counterterrorism capacity may suffer some setbacks initially, France's strategy must shift from reliance on bases to building partnerships and adapting to new political realities in the region. Rather than resisting this change, accepting it proactively could position France to play a constructive security role based on mutual interests while respecting local ownership.
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Malaysia Calls for Measures on Myanmar as ASEAN Meets
Malaysia has taken an assertive stance at the annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Jakarta, calling for “strong” measures against Myanmar's military junta. Foreign Minister, Zambry Abdul Kadir, emphasized that the junta's actions have hindered the peace restoration plan.
Myanmar's turbulent transition from a period of reform under Aung San Suu Kyi's government to military rule has posed a significant challenge for ASEAN, revealing divisions between member states. This summit comes at a critical moment for ASEAN to demonstrate its ability to take meaningful action on both Myanmar and the South China Sea. The absence of the US and Chinese presidents at this meeting is noteworthy, with Vice President Kamala Harris representing the US and Chinese Premier Li Qiang attending in place of President Xi Jinping.
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AUKUS Defence Pact Faces Legislative Hurdles
The AUKUS defence pact between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom aims to enhance military collaboration, including the transfer of US nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. However, legislative roadblocks in the US Congress have stalled submarine transfers and broader goals.
Getting Congress on board this year is critical for AUKUS. However, partisan divisions and threat perceptions complicate consensus. Without legislative progress enabling submarine transfers and export control reform, aspirational talk of an enhanced allied tech base is premature. Yet each side has incentives to compromise. Addressing genuine fleet capacity and security concerns could pave the way. But delayed action risks reducing AUKUS to rhetoric without tangible progress. As China rapidly modernizes its military, AUKUS allies have a closing window to make their ambitious vision a strategic reality.
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Delays in Resolving Iraq-Turkey Oil Dispute
The stalled flow of Iraqi crude oil exports to Turkey is unlikely to resume before October, when Turkish President Erdogan plans to visit Baghdad. Turkey halted northern Iraqi oil exports in March following an arbitration ruling requiring Ankara to pay $1.5 billion to Baghdad for unauthorized Kurdish oil exports. With Iraq now pursuing that award in U.S. courts, resolving the dispute and restarting flows has been delayed despite months of talks.
The suspended oil trade has already cost Iraq billions in lost revenues and a key source of oil supply for Turkey. While both countries have incentives to compromise, complex legal and political issues remain. The planned presidential visit signals high-level pressure to break the deadlock. However, unless significant progress is made beforehand, the trip may simply buy more time rather than achieving a definitive breakthrough. With Iraq deprived of income and Turkey lacking supply, prolonged delay risks turning a commercial dispute into a deeper political estrangement.
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Russia and Saudi Arabia Extend Oil Production Cuts
Saudi Arabia and Russia announced this week they will extend oil production cuts through the end of 2023. The moves aim to prop up prices, with Brent Crude quickly surpassing $90/barrel. Saudi output will remain 1 million barrels per day (bpd) below capacity, while Russia caps exports by 300,000 bpd.
The extended curbs signal both countries' preference for high prices over market share. This could complicate inflation fighting by central banks while aiding Russia's war effort. With supplies already tight, the cuts raise risks of price spikes if output disruptions occur. While eventual capacity boosts may come, OPEC+ shows no signs of abandoning its hawkish stance soon. Whether stubbornly high prices weigh on demand or spur more supply elsewhere, the group seems willing to double down on its strategy.
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Ukraine’s Strategy May Shift with New Leadership
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently replaced his defence minister, a move likely aimed at ushering in a new military strategy as the war with Russia reaches a critical juncture. This shift in leadership is driven not only by the exhaustion of the outgoing minister, but also by the recognition that Ukraine's strategy requires a significant overhaul.
For months, Ukraine utilized a decentralized approach, with small, agile units targeting Russian forces. This taxed Russia's initial invasion plans. However, with the conflict now a drawn-out war of attrition, there are signs Ukraine is shifting to a more centralized strategy focused on massing forces for major counteroffensives. A recent meeting between US and Ukrainian generals hinted at this strategic pivot. While Ukraine's flexible defence served it well early on, as a blooded force equipped with advanced weapons, it may now look to go on the attack in a more coordinated fashion. This could break stalled Russian offensives. However, big shifts mid-war are inherently risky. With both sides exhausted, maintaining flexible capabilities while massing forces may prove the chosen course.