In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, September 27th
Nord Stream 1 & 2 Out of Operation due to Sabotage, Turkey is Shifting its Syria Strategy, and other stories.
Nord Stream 1 & 2 Out of Operation due to Sabotage
Three leaks have been discovered on the Nord Stream pipelines that carry gas from Russia to Europe via the Baltic Sea. The Nord Stream pipelines have been flashpoints in an escalating energy war between capitals in Europe and Moscow, sending gas prices soaring. Although the cause of the leaks is unknown at the moment and no evidence has been cited, both European nations and Russia seem to blame sabotage.
Such an attack on the seabed is anything but trivial, and would likely have to be carried out by special forces operating aircraft, navy divers or a submarine. Neither pipeline was pumping gas to Europe at the time the leaks were found, but the incidents will scupper any remaining expectations that Europe could receive gas via Nord Stream 1 before or during the coming winter. The pipeline attacks come as a number of German politicians demanded the opening of Nord Stream 2, and the subject has attracted a growing protest movement in Germany.
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Turkey is Shifting its Syria Strategy
Turkey’s strategy in Syria has shifted over the years. Initially, Ankara sought to remove al Assad from power while preventing a Kurdish state from developing in the power vacuum of the civil war. But after Russia intervened in the war and the United States allied with Kurdish militants, Turkey's strategy shifted. Since then, Ankara has sought to build a buffer zone along its border with Syria to block Kurdish attacks and prevent an inflow of more Syrian refugees.
In recent months the Turkish leadership has expressed a growing interest in conducting talks with the government in Syria. Closer relations between the two countries risk causing an anti-Turkey backlash among US-backed Syrian rebels, which might escalate attacks against Turkish positions. Such a scenario would also leave the US in a difficult position. With little political will to expand the US military mission in Syria, the US could redeploy forces away from potential SDF-Turkey conflict hotspots.
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Kazakhstan’s Potential as Europe’s Next Uranium Supplier
Beyond Europe’s turn away from Russian fossil fuels, Brussels is also looking to source uranium from non-Russian sources to power European nuclear plants. An obvious alternative can be found in Kazakhstan, a country which produces more than 40% of the world’s entire uranium supply. With the largest unexploited uranium reserves in the world, Kazakhstan could soon dominate the market.
For now, the main route for exporting Kazakhstan's uranium remains via St Petersburg, Russia. Sanctions against Russia have complicated this traditional export route, and now Astana has plans to use an alternative route that avoids Russian territory and delivers uranium across the Caspian Sea. While the St Petersburg option has remained uninterrupted despite economic disruption caused by consequences of the war in Ukraine, this could change if Astana seizes the opportunity to break with Moscow and explore an independent course for the export of uranium.
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Chevron and BP Evacuate Drilling Platforms in the Gulf of Mexico
Oil majors BP and Chevron have announced that they have shut down production at offshore oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as a powerful hurricane approached a major US offshore oil production region. Since the bulk of US LNG export facilities and seaborne oil rigs are found along the Gulf of Mexico’s Coast, a major source of global energy supplies is located in a region susceptible to the environmental havoc caused by hurricanes.
When hurricanes batter the Gulf of Mexico, every process from drilling, liquefaction, shipping, extraction and processing can be disrupted. Hurricane Ian is a category 3 storm that is expected to make landfall near Tampa, Florida Wednesday and Thursday, with the track, timing, and intensity of the storm uncertain. While the hurricane is not expected to hit refinery capacity along the Texas and Louisiana coasts, it could lead to more oil and gas production shutting down in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week.