In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, September 28th
Russia Offers its Central Asian Bases to the United States and Tajikistan Anticipating Taliban Infiltration From Afghanistan
Russia Offers its Central Asian Bases to the United States
In what seems a very strange move, reporting from the Wall Street Journal indicates that Russian president Vladimir Putin raised the possibility of hosting US forces within Russian bases in Central Asia. The idea is said to have been floated when US President Biden met Putin in June earlier this year in Geneva. Whether the offer is serious is unknown, but the fact that US officials are willing to discuss the idea demonstrates the critical role Moscow will play in the region in the years to come.
According to a recent report, there is some substance to the idea. The Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley is said to have discussed the proposal with his Russian counterpart in a meeting in Helsinki last week. The Russian side is said to have been “noncommittal” to the idea so far, and a US readout of the meeting helps little in clarifying whether discussions on such an arrangement had any substance.
Russia has several key military bases in Central Asia. The two most significant Russian military installations in the region are the Kant Air Base east of Bishkek, and several facilities in Tajikistan (based mostly in Dushanbe and Bokhtar). The military base in Tajikistan is one of Russia’s largest foreign bases, housing roughly 7,000 active personnel. This means that Russia cannot be dismissed when approaching Central Asia, a reality Washington has admitted as US officials appear ready to engage Russia as an element in the wider approach to the region.
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Tajikistan Anticipating Taliban Infiltration From Afghanistan
Tajikistan shares a very long border with Afghanistan stretching for more than 1,400 kilometres. As the Taliban rapidly retook lands in northern Afghanistan, Tajikistan had been on high alert weeks before Kabul was taken on August 15. Dushanbe has been unique from its regional neighbours in that the country has maintained outspoken criticism of the Taliban, and still maintains a hostile stance toward its southern neighbour.
Now officials in Dushanbe are sounding the alarm about reports of Taliban-aligned Tajik militants making plans to cross the border into Tajikistan. An Tajik official has said that Tajik authorities are reviewing information regarding infiltration prepartions from northern Afghanistan reportedly being undertaken by militant groups just across the border. Among the groups suspected of a role in the plans is Jamaat Ansarullah, a militant group which is banned in Tajikistan and branded as a terrorist organisation. Tajik officials say they are monitoring the border carefully and that their forces are “prepared to deal with them.”
As Taliban forces advanced over recent weeks, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has reacted by deploying an additional 20,000 military personnel to help guard the country’s border with Afghanistan. In addition, Tajikistan has also conducted military drills with Russia and other members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Tajikistan maintains a policy of support for the Tajik minorities living in Afghanistan, and argues that their rights are not being upheld under Taliban rule. Such an approach to Afghanistan is unlikely to sit well with the new leaders in Kabul, and the two are likely to continue to posture their forces along the border in the name of security.
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