In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, September 20th
In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, September 20th
Chinese Yuan Grows in Popularity in the Russian Financial System, The US Hosts Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and other stories.
Eritrea Mobilizes to Join Ethiopia’s Offensive Operations in Tigray
Eritrea has mobilized a part of its reserves and joined Ethiopia in launching a full-scale offensive in the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray. The renewal in fighting has seen Eritrean forces fighting alongside Ethiopian federal forces, including commando units and allied militia, marking an escalation in the ongoing civil war in Ethiopia.
While Eritrea has previously supported Ethiopian forces in their war against Tigrayan rebels since the war broke out in 2020, Asmara withdrew forces last year as large-scale fighting subsided. Now, an unknown number of reservists have been called up to take part in a major offensive. The entry of Eritrea into the war will complicate peace efforts between Tigrayan leaders and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
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Chinese Yuan Grows in Popularity in the Russian Financial System
The Chinese yuan is gaining popularity in Russia amid Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine. The currency is increasingly being used to facilitate Russia’s international trade settlements, serving as a viable alternative to the dollar and the euro.
Russia has responded to sanctions by drawing closer to China. Over the first eight months of this year, trade turnover between the two countries increased by 31 percent, and the trade relationship is on course to hit a record of $200 billion by the end of this year. Beijing has emerged as Moscow’s biggest energy customer and Chinese companies have begun to fill the gaps in the Russian market created by the mass exodus of US-aligned corporations.
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Violence Breaks Out at the Bangladesh-Myanmar Border
A series of violent incidents near the Bangladesh-Myanmar border has turned deadly. The shooting and bombing reportedly conducted by the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army has taken place sporadically since early August, and has since complicated relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Authorities in Bangladesh have informed envoys of ASEAN on the ongoing tense situation along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, seeking their cooperation to stop the violence that may destabilise the whole region. Myanmar remains close to China, India and Russia, with each power transferring military aid in some shape or form. Russia has provided fighter jets and armoured vehicles to Myanmar; China has provided aircraft; Serbia has provided ammunition; and India has helped build an air defence station.
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The US Hosts Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan
The United States has sought to step in as a potential mediator in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan by conducting talks with their foreign ministers. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for “a durable peace” between Armenia and Azerbaijan during the first high-level meeting between the rivals since fighting broke out last week.
The two Caucasus countries remain locked in a decades-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region located within Azerbaijan but that had been long under the control of Armenia. Baku and Yerevan both blame each other for starting last week's shelling attacks and skirmishes, yet each has also sought to contain violence for the time being. The involvement of Washington is likely to be welcomed by both parties to the conflict, but cause some concern in Ankara, Tehran and Moscow. For now, US-hosted talks have not yet yielded any concrete agreements.