In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, May 17th
Japan Bolsters Africa Diplomacy Ahead of G7 Hiroshima Summit, Black Sea Grain Deal Extended, and other stories.
Japan Bolsters Africa Diplomacy Ahead of G7 Hiroshima Summit
Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio recently concluded a week-long tour of four African countries, namely Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, and Mozambique. During his trip, Kishida emphasized principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and a free and open international order based on the rule of law, implicitly referencing the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The choice of countries visited favoured UN reform, collaboration in the TICAD Process, countering Islamic extremist groups, and addressing China's economic leverage.
Kishida's visit serves as a significant step in Japan's Africa diplomacy and sets the stage for discussions at the upcoming G7 Hiroshima Summit. The visit not only highlights Africa's relevance in global affairs but also underscores Japan's commitment to multilateralism, respect for the UN Charter, and countering Chinese influence in the African region. With discussions revolving around UN reform, countering extremism, responsible development financing, and energy security, the outcomes of Kishida's visit will contribute to shaping the agenda of the G7 Hiroshima Summit and foster collaboration among the participating nations.
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China's 'One Belt, One Road' and the Middle East's Shia Crescent
China's 'One Belt, One Road' initiative relies on the strategic importance of the Shia Crescent in the Middle East. This region, led by Iran, offers China advantages in countering US influence, accessing transport routes to Europe, and tapping into abundant and affordable oil and gas reserves.
Recent agreements between Iran and Syria strengthen China's position and its alliance with Russia. Meanwhile, Iran and China are collaborating on a power grid in the region, centered around Tehran, to enhance infrastructure and extend influence. Jordan and Iraq have signed contracts to import crude oil and connect their electric power grids, establishing a direct link between Jordan and Iran. Additionally, Syria's size, coastline, military hubs, and energy resources make it valuable to the China-Russia-Iran alliance. These developments expand China's geopolitical influence and establish crucial transport routes, significantly impacting the power dynamics and international relations of the region.
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Black Sea Grain Deal Extended
The Black Sea grain deal between Ukraine and Russia has been extended for two more months. This agreement allows Ukrainian ships to continue exporting grain and fertilizers from Black Sea ports. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, established in response to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, aims to facilitate the safe transportation of grain and foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports.
The invasion caused a halt in maritime grain shipments from Ukraine, resulting in increased global food prices and the risk of famine in lower-income nations. Talks, led by Turkey with the support of the United Nations, began in April and culminated in an agreement signed in July 2022. The initial agreement created procedures for exporting grain from select ports, and a joint coordination and inspection centre was established in Turkey with the UN serving as the secretariat. The agreement has been extended multiple times, with the most recent extension lasting for an additional 60 days until July 18th, 2023.
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Chile's Proposed National Lithium Strategy Faces Challenges
Chile's proposed National Lithium Strategy, aimed at increasing state control over the country's lithium sector, could impact investor interest due to higher associated costs. The strategy, announced by President Gabriel Boric, would require new lithium contracts to be public-private partnerships with majority state control over mining. While existing contracts would not be immediately expropriated, private companies' contracts would expire, allowing the state to exercise veto powers over key decisions.
If passed, it might lead investors to consider alternative countries like Australia or Argentina, posing a risk to technology companies reliant on Chilean lithium and potentially disrupting their supply chains. Additionally, the strategy introduces hurdles such as longer lead times, required consultations with Indigenous communities, and the use of a less common extraction technique, further deterring potential investors. The United States — traditionally opposed to nationalization efforts in South America—may exert pressures that compound the complexities faced by Chile's National Lithium Strategy.
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Russian Nuclear Threat Hangs Over Ukraine
Recent developments in Ukraine indicate that Russian military commanders are facing challenges in effectively responding to potential Ukrainian escalations in fighting. The escalating situation raises concerns that President Vladimir Putin might resort to nuclear weapons as a means of countering Ukrainian escalation.
Over the past year, Putin has laid the groundwork for using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, removing barriers and creating justifications to garner support from the Russian people. These developments in Russia's increased reliance on nuclear weapons and the potential for their use in Ukraine pose significant challenges to the international community. The normalization of nuclear weapons as a tool of warfare could have far-reaching consequences for global security and the established order.