In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, April 6th
Moldova’s Precarious Geopolitical Position, US Security Concerns Dominate Outcomes in Latin America, Turkey and the US to Boost Economic and Defence Cooperation
Moldova’s Precarious Geopolitical Position
With a war raging in neighbouring Ukraine, Moldova is a country in an increasingly precarious geopolitical position. If the southern Ukrainian city of Odessa were to fall into the hands of Russian forces, it would not be long before Russia would be able to link up with the Russian-backed breakaway region of Transnistria. In such an event, Moldova would be in a very vulnerable position as the small country has no natural geographic barriers, no major allies, a weak military and is economically constrained. All of these factors mean that Moldova would not possess the ability to adequately deter Russia from dominating the country.
While the Nistru River separates territory controlled by Moldova and Transnistria, the settlement of the 1992 Transnistrian War means that Russian peacekeepers control all the bridges, effectively offsetting the defensive advantages provided by the River. The Moldovan military is also very small, with around 5,000 active service personnel and aging Soviet-era military equipment. On its own, this force would struggle to oppose the estimated 10,000 - 15,000 troops in the service of the breakaway region of Transnistria. Moreover, the country receives almost all of its natural gas and more than three quarters of its electricity from Russia or Transnistria. This reality means that Russia wields political leverage that could be used to destabilize the country. Making matters worse, Moldova does not have the kind of security and military relationships with other powers that could work to deter Russia. All of these factors translate to geographically, militarily, economically and politically vulnerable Moldova.
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US Security Concerns Dominate Outcomes in Latin America
The United States remains sensitive to the growing influence of major outside powers in Latin America. Countries in Latin America remain subject to the interests and and designs of the US in many ways even today. Since US President James Monroe first articulated Washington’s imperial designs on the Western Hemisphere in 1823, the region has remained within the purview — and subject to the interests of — of successive US administrations. In the latest iteration of this imperialist tendency, US President Joe Biden has branded Latin America as “America’s front yard.”
Biden’s statement come at a time when China is becoming a major economic partner to many countries in this region, in many ways surpassing the economic ties that Washington has long enjoyed here. The implication of these growing economic relations between Latin American capitals and Beijing is that China is trespassing in what Washington considers its sphere of influence. The US exercises an outsized role in the region that is derived from an asymmetrical relationship of power between countries in Latin America and the US, an asymmetry which continues to animate the thinking and actions of US policymakers and elites. As such, leaders in Washington continue to view US security interests and geopolitical designs as those of the rest of the Western Hemisphere, and in doing so, they often support policies which treat the separate destinies of two dozen sovereign Latin American countries as subservient to US interests.
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Turkey and the US to Boost Economic and Defence Cooperation
After years of tense relations between the United States and Turkey following the 2016 Turkish coupe d'état attempt, Washington and Ankara look set to mend ties and boost cooperation across areas of mutual interest. Exactly what shape the relationship will take going forward remains unclear, but as a starting point Turkey and the US have launched a strategic mechanism which will expand bilateral cooperation. The mechanism is stated to provide a platform through which consultations at different levels can be held with the goal of deepening cooperation on trade and security.
Beyond the aforementioned 2016 Turkish coupe d'état attempt, recent disagreements between the two NATO allies include Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile defence systems, Washington’s support of Syrian-Kurdish People’s Protection Units militia, policy differences on Libya, and disagreements over energy extraction in the eastern Mediterranean. Given the economic situation in Turkey and the ongoing war in Ukraine, both Turkey and the United States find themselves in need of each other despite years of somewhat hostile relations. The US has retracted its support for the EastMed pipeline project and has welcomed Turkey’s efforts to facilitate a negotiated diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. As relations warm, their most recent meetings saw officials from both countries stress their commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty as part of a renewed review of topics of mutual interest.
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