In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, April 27th
Russia's Degrading Spy Network Across Europe, US Broadens Stated Goals in the War in Ukraine, EU Threatens Coordinated Response to Russia’s Gas Supply Cuts
Russia's Degrading Spy Network Across Europe
Diplomatic expulsions conducted by a host of European countries has already led to more than 150 Russian diplomats being expelled since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. The majority of these expulsions have been accompanied by statements which allege that the Russian diplomatic personnel are conducting espionage, with each EU member state justifying expulsions on the grounds that Russia’s diplomats violated the terms of their diplomatic status. This wave of diplomatic expulsions is considerable and will serve as a major setback to Russia's spying activities in Europe going forward.
It is typical of major powers to use their foreign embassies and consulates pursue espionage activities while also conducting diplomacy. Diplomats work under an “official cover” as they operate with recognized diplomatic immunity doing legitimate work, but at the same time, these same state representatives also function as spies. The vast majority of this work involves crucial human intelligence, work like recruiting and handling assets, facilitating and overseeing operations, and sending constant intelligence updates back home. The extent to which Russian diplomats conducted espionage activities across Europe under diplomatic immunity is unclear, and while the mass expulsion will work to severely limit Russian spying capabilities in the near-term, the impacts will likely diminish over time. A strong espionage network like Russia's should be expected to be resilient enough to withstand the loss of personnel, even when expulsions number in the hundreds.
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US Broadens Stated Goals in the War in Ukraine
US Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin made a statement following a recent visit to Ukraine in which he suggested that the United States has broadened its stated goals in the developing proxy war in Ukraine. According to Austin, a key goal of the current US administration is to see Russia “weakened” to such a point in Ukraine that it would no longer be able to invade a neighbouring state. Austin’s statements differ starkly from previous statements made by US officials that were careful to limit US goals to aid in the defence of Ukraine in its war against a more powerful neighbour.
A US strategy which seeks to use the war in Ukraine in order to weaken Russia is wholly incompatible with the search for a ceasefire or peace deal. These emerging stated goals would likely compel Washington to oppose any such settlement and keep the war going as long as Russia’s military capabilities are not yet degraded enough. Similarly, US officials have alluded to a military victory for Ukraine as another key goal of the US in the conflict. These statements imply that there exists a US commitment to underwrite Ukraine’s military capabilities until such a point when Kiev has successfully reconquered all of the territory occupied by Russia since 2014. Yet such a commitment implies a near-permanent state of war in Ukraine is a stated goal of the US. This is because no Russian government would willingly surrender the Crimean Peninsula, and a Ukrainian military victory here is highly unlikely.
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EU Threatens Coordinated Response to Russia’s Gas Supply Cuts
Following Russia’s supply cut of natural gas to the Polish state-owned energy company PGNiG, Bulgaria’s state-owned Bulgargaz has also received a notification that as of today all deliveries of natural gas from Russia’s Gazprom will be suspended. Both countries have now refused to pay for natural gas supplies from Russia’s Gazprom in rubles by the deadline set by Moscow, and have therefore had their natural gas supplies cut until payments are made according to Moscow’s new specifications.
The Bulgarian Energy Ministry has said that the new payment procedure was not in line with the existing contract and posed significant risks to Bulgaria. The Bulgarian Energy Ministry said they have taken steps to secure alternative supplies of natural gas in light of the supply cut, with Kiril Petkov, the Prime Minister of Bulgaria, holding talks with Greek officials to speed up the development of the IGB pipeline project. At the same time, the European Union is working to ensure alternative natural gas supplies to the two countries, and has pledged a coordinated response to Moscow’s new payment mechanisms. Commenting on the issue, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that demands to pay for natural gas deliveries in rubles amounted to an attempt by Russia to “use gas as an instrument of blackmail.” The Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, went much further when he described the supply cut as “a direct attack” on Poland.
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