In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, April 26th
US and South Korea Sign Nuclear Submarine Agreement, Azerbaijan Erects Checkpoint on Lachin Corridor, and other stories.
US and South Korea Sign Nuclear Submarine Agreement
The United States and South Korea have reportedly signed an agreement that includes plans to dock US nuclear-armed submarines in South Korea for the first time in over 40 years. The agreement, known as the Washington Declaration, aims to deter North Korea from carrying out an attack on its neighbour and allay South Korean fears over North Korea's nuclear weapons programme.
The agreement is a compromise between Washington and Seoul to prevent South Korea from restarting its own nuclear programme. The agreement also calls for the US and South Korean militaries to strengthen joint training and better integrate South Korean military assets into the joint strategic deterrence effort. The state visit of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol comes as the US and South Korea mark the 70th year of the their bilateral alliance that began at the end of the Korean War and has committed the US to help South Korea defend itself. Approximately 28,500 US troops are currently based in South Korea.
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Research Rocket Crash Strains Relations Between Norway and Sweden
A research rocket commissioned by the European Space Agency (ESA) has landed in the mountains of Norway, rather than its intended landing site in Sweden, after deviating from its planned course. No injuries were reported, and the payload was recovered and transported back to the Swedish launch site, where an investigation into the incident has been launched.
The incident has led to a rare disagreement between Sweden and Norway. The Norwegian foreign ministry criticized Sweden for not immediately informing them of the rocket’s crash, stating that “when such a border violation occurs, it is crucial that those responsible immediately inform the relevant Norwegian authorities through the proper channels.” The ministry noted that retrieval work was not supposed to begin without Norwegian authorization, which had not been granted.
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Azerbaijan Erects Checkpoint on Lachin Corridor
Azerbaijan's state border service has established a checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor, which is the only road connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh. This move has been condemned by outside powers, who have called for Azerbaijan to cease its unilateral activities in the area.
The road has been blockaded since December 2022, but the establishment of a checkpoint demonstrates Baku's intention to regulate all traffic in and out of Nagorno-Karabakh. This development risks undermining the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan cease-fire agreement, as Baku had agreed to guarantee the continuation of traffic along it in both directions. The lack of a meaningful international response to the checkpoint may embolden Baku to continue regular violent cease-fire violations. Additionally, the Azerbaijani checkpoint is located next to a base of Russian peacekeepers, which further erodes the credibility of Russia and its peacekeeping contingent to uphold the 2020 cease-fire agreement.
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Colombian President Hosts Conference on Venezuela
Colombian President Gustavo Petro hosted a conference in Bogotá to discuss the political situation in Venezuela. Representatives from 19 countries and the European Union, including Argentina, Brazil, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, attended the conference, which aimed to reignite talks between Maduro’s administration and Venezuela’s political opposition.
Petro called on the international community to lift sanctions against Venezuela but also pressed for Maduro to schedule democratic elections in the country. However, neither of the opposing parties was in attendance at the conference. The opposition coalition, the Democratic Unitary Platform, voiced support for the meeting, though some factions questioned Colombia’s role as mediator. Latin America has seen a wave of left-wing leaders elected to top positions in government, leading some countries to resume relations with Maduro’s government.
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Middle East Works to Develop Domestic Military-industrial Base
In the Middle East, several nations have traditionally relied on purchasing defence equipment from foreign powers to ensure their security and establish diplomatic relationships. This practice helped them secure their first line of defence and increased the possibility of receiving further foreign military assistance if needed. However, with the United States and its allies focusing their attention elsewhere, countries in the region are increasingly seeking their own military-industrial base.
Qatar is one such nation that recognizes the limitations of its oil-dependent economy. To achieve a diversified and robust economy, Qatar is shifting its defence ecosystem from a buyer's market to an industrial one. This involves acquiring engineering and industrial capacity to meet its military needs and create arms design programs. Qatar has become one of the most potent military forces in the region due to a well-funded procurement policy and abundant natural resources to finance it. This has enabled Qatar to purchase advanced attack helicopters, aircraft, and other equipment, while also investing in new acquisition projects.