In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, April 13th
Terrain in Eastern Ukraine May Favour Russia’s Offensive Operations, The Problem of Logistics in US Military Strategy Toward China, Ongoing Talks for Normalizing Ties Between Egypt and Turkey
Terrain in Eastern Ukraine May Favour Russia’s Offensive Operations
Russia has lost a considerable amount of armoured vehicles in Ukraine since initiating an invasion of the country. Equipped with more than 60,000 anti-armour systems — such as the Javelin anti-tank missile systems delivered by the the United States and its allies, as well as the Bayraktar TB-2 drones supplied by Turkey — Ukrainian forces have claimed numerous battlefield successes against Russia’s armoured divisions. However, as the majority of the fighting so far has taken place in built-up areas and logistical funnels, the more open terrain of eastern Ukraine may prove advantageous to Russian armoured divisions as Moscow prepares for an imminent offensive here.
Knocking out tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and other types of armoured vehicles with the numerous NATO-supplied weapons systems may prove difficult in the open terrain of the Donbas. As Russia prepares a major offensive in this part of Ukraine, large-scale use of tanks and other armoured vehicles by the Russian armed forces seems inevitable given the advantages provided by the terrain in eastern Ukraine for such units. The eastern part Ukraine is rural, flat and open land, terrain ideal for mechanized divisions capable of conducting long-range missions. With little cover to accommodate the kind of surprise attacks that the Ukrainian armed forces have proven successful at conducting thus far, Russia’s armoured divisions are expected to enjoy a greater degree of freedom in manoeuvring on open ground in the Donbas.
Read more about this story here.
The Problem of Logistics in US Military Strategy Toward China
As the United States continues to prepare for systemic competition with China across the Indian and Pacific Oceans, the US military faces a logistical problem in achieving its aims. In broad terms, the US military is seeking to defend US allies along the First Island Chain, control the maritime exits of the South China Sea, and prevent China from taking control of Taiwan. A key challenge to successfully carrying out such a strategy lies in the logistical difficulties in achieving these objectives over vast distances.
While the US maintains military bases in Hawaii and Guam, the distance between California and Japan — a key US ally paramount to Washington’s strategic approach to China — is more than 5,000 miles from California by air. Making logistical matters worse, few landmasses exist between the First and Second Island Chains that could serve as a potential base of operations for US forces. Once aircraft take off from the East Coast of the US, they must fly to a major base for refuelling or maintenance somewhere beyond the reach of China’s own military capabilities. One way to accomplish this given geographic realities, the US Air Force may seek to ramp up production of its air-refuelling tanker fleet as a means of reliably projecting tactical and strategic airpower over such long distances. However, without a concerted effort to expand this fleet of tanker aircraft, the US military runs the risk of being cut off from the ability to refuel and resupply its forward-deployed forces in the Pacific Ocean.
Read more about this story here.
Ongoing Talks for Normalizing Ties Between Egypt and Turkey
Egypt and Turkey are slowly moving toward a normalisation of diplomatic ties after both countries mutually downgraded diplomatic representation in 2013. A recent announcement by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu indicated that his country would now work to normalise relations with Egypt to end the ongoing political tensions between the two countries. Cavusoglu's remarks come as Egyptian and Turkish diplomats prepare a third round of negotiations on mending relations.
Relations between Egypt and Turkey after the Egyptian army ousted Egypt’s former president Mohamed Morsi, whose government had maintained close ties to Ankara. Turkey condemned the overthrow of the former president, and lambasted Egypt's treatment of the members of the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Morsi and his followers were members. Yet the drive to normalize ties may not be enough to resolve differences between the two countries in the near-term. Egypt has not indicated a strong willingness to advance the normalization offer that Turkey has made, with Cairo remaining sceptical of Ankara given their conflicting interests in Libya and the Mediterranean Sea. In the case of Turkey, the government in Ankara may see no reason to compromise Turkish interests elsewhere in favour of more favourable relations with Egypt.
Read more about this story here.