In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, April 10th
Algeria Restores Diplomatic Ties with Spain, US Rushes HAWK System Repairs to Ukraine, and other stories.
Algeria Restores Diplomatic Ties with Spain
Algeria has reinstated its ambassador to Spain after a two-year diplomatic dispute triggered by Madrid's policy shift on Western Sahara. In March 2022, Spain backed Morocco's autonomy plan for the disputed territory, angering Algeria and the Polisario Front, who advocate for an independent Sahrawi state. Algeria recalled its envoy and suspended its friendship treaty with Spain in response. While the appointment of a new Algerian ambassador is a significant step towards normalizing relations, tensions persist whenever Spanish officials reiterate support for Morocco's position.
Despite the diplomatic crisis, Algeria has consolidated its role as Spain's primary natural gas supplier. In March 2023, Algeria accounted for 42% of Spain's total gas imports, surpassing Russia (25.7%) and the United States (18.2%). This increase was driven by a 15.4% rise in gas delivered via the Medgaz pipeline in Almería. While the EU has not vetoed Russian gas imports, Spain's Ecological Transition Minister has called for a common EU position on reducing or prohibiting Russian gas, including LNG. The diplomatic spat has impacted trade and migration between Spain and Algeria, but Algeria's importance as a reliable energy partner has remained unchanged.
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Mali Suspends Political Activities Amid Clashes with Tuareg Rebels
Mali's military junta has announced the suspension of all political party and association activities until further notice, citing reasons of public order. The decision comes amid reports of clashes between northern Tuareg rebels and the Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which have breached their non-aggression pact. The fighting, which took place near the Wagadou forest close to the Mali-Mauritania border on April 5, resulted in the deaths of an estimated 10–20 fighters.
The clashes between the Tuareg rebels and JNIM could potentially lead to persistent fighting, diverting JNIM's resources from combating its rival, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). This development may allow ISGS to expand its territories and launch more attacks in northern Mali, particularly in Menaka and the Ansongo area, further deteriorating the security situation and straining the country's security forces. As the junta suspends political activities and the non-aggression pact between Tuareg rebels and JNIM unravels, the future of Mali's stability and the balance of power among various armed factions remain uncertain.
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Europe's Dilemma in Balancing Interests and Risks over Taiwan
As tensions between the United States and China escalate over Taiwan, European leaders find themselves in a precarious position. While expressing support for international law and the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, they have been reluctant to articulate concrete responses or commitments in the event of a conflict. This hesitancy stems from a desire to maintain economic ties with China and avoid exacerbating the situation, as well as an awareness of Europe's limited military capabilities to credibly deter China or intervene in a distant theatre.
However, Europe risks sleepwalking into taking sides as it aligns with US policies on export controls and includes China as a challenge in NATO's Strategic Concept. The historical record suggests that attempts to contain conflict dynamics to specific geographical theatres have rarely succeeded, with spillover effects and escalation being more common. In a high-intensity US-China conflict over Taiwan, Europe's naval contributions would be severely constrained by limited ship numbers, vast distances, and the simultaneous need to maintain deterrence against Russia in the Euro-Atlantic. A protracted conflict would also strain Europe's defence industry and expose gaps in its own conventional deterrence posture.
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Competing Diplomatic Initiatives as US-China Rivalry Intensifies
As the United States prepares to host a historic trilateral summit with Japan and the Philippines, China is bolstering its own diplomatic ties with Russia and North Korea, underscoring the growing competition between the two superpowers in the Indo-Pacific region. The competing diplomatic initiatives highlight the intensifying rivalry between the US and China, as both powers seek to shape the international landscape in their favour.
On one side, the US-led trilateral summit brings together key allies Japan and the Philippines, signalling a significant step-up in cooperation on economic, technological, and security fronts. On the other side, China is actively engaging with its own partners, Russia and North Korea. As tensions continue to simmer, an overemphasis on military deterrence without corresponding diplomatic efforts could further escalate the situation. Finding a delicate balance between security and diplomacy will be crucial for both the US. and China to manage their competition and maintain stability, particularly in the South China Sea.
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Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan Streamline Trade Customs
On April 7, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signed a memorandum of understanding with Georgia and Azerbaijan to simplify customs procedures along the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. This rail route is part of the Middle Corridor, a network of trade routes connecting China and Europe via the Caspian Sea. The agreement aims to coordinate customs inspections across the three countries, with implementation overseen by a new commission. The goal is to facilitate the expected tripling of Middle Corridor trade volume by 2030, capitalizing on recent infrastructure upgrades by Azerbaijan and Georgia.
This agreement is a strategic move by Turkey to solidify its role as a key hub for East-West trade. Erdoğan has emphasized Turkey's importance in this regard, particularly after being snubbed by Western powers after they signed plans for a trade corridor bypassing Turkey at the G20 meeting in September 2022. By streamlining customs procedures, Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan hope to overcome the friction and costs that have hindered traffic on the route to date. The agreement represents a strategic alignment of interests among the three countries to capitalize on the growing potential of the Middle Corridor trade route. The Middle Corridor provides an alternative to routes through the Black Sea, which are currently unappealing due to the war in Ukraine.
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US Rushes HAWK System Repairs to Ukraine
Ukraine is facing a critical shortage of air defence systems, as many of the high-end systems previously provided by the US and Europe have either been destroyed or have exhausted their supply of interceptor missiles. NATO allies are struggling to find replacement missiles and parts for the Patriot systems, with Germany and others stating that no interceptor missiles are currently available. Norway has pledged more NASAMS, but they need to be manufactured, while Europe has depleted its stock of IRIS-T missiles, with new ones not expected until at least 2025.
In response to this dire situation, the US has announced a $138 million emergency sale to maintain and repair the HAWK air defence systems previously delivered to Ukraine. The sale, likely to be a credit loan with little chance of repayment, is expected to be covered by the pending $60 billion Ukraine aid program. The US State Department's push for an emergency sale suggests that the Spanish-origin HAWKS sent to Ukraine have either been damaged, destroyed, or are no longer operational. Restoring these old systems to service may prove challenging, as many of the semiconductor components are outdated and out of production. Despite the planned refurbishment of the HAWK system, Ukraine still lacks sufficient air defences to protect critical infrastructure and battlefield fortifications. The upcoming delivery of old, used F-16s in July may not significantly alter the balance of power in the face of Russian air defence systems either.