In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, August 18th
The Arms the US Left Behind in Afghanistan and Turkey Exploring the Cost of Pursuing a Lasting Footprint in Kabul
The Arms the US Left Behind in Afghanistan
The rapid advance of the Taliban, which has now seized control of much of Afghanistan, has meant that the United States and the United Kingdom have been unable to withdraw many of their weapons, vehicles and aircraft. In the scramble to leave, US-made Black Hawk helicopters are pictured in the hands of the Taliban. After the group took over Mazar-i-Sharif airport, pictures emerged of Taliban fighters standing next to an MD-530 utility helicopter and an A-29 attack plane.
The A-29 Super Tucano is a highly capable modified turboprop attack plane Of the Afghan air force’s inventory, fitted with US-made sensors and weapons. The Afghan air force are said to have operated a total of 211 aircraft according to a report conducted in July. But according to Gen. Mark Kelly, Chief of Air Combat Command, the Taliban’s acquisition of aircraft such as the A-29 is not threatening, and is “something that, frankly, concerns us.”
So far, it remains unclear what part of the arms captured by the Taliban are operable, or what the Taliban intends to do with them. While the Taliban could sell captured vehicles and aircraft to countries like China or Russia, none would hold exceptional valuable to either power according to US defence analysis. Short of selling the captured arms, the cost of the logistics associated with maintaining sophisticated weaponry would be an expensive proposition.
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Turkey Exploring the Cost of Pursuing a Lasting Footprint in Kabul
Ankara has recently been negotiating with Washington over a future Turkish military presence in Kabul. The initial plan was for Turkey to take up a fortified position in Kabul’s international airport once US forces completed their withdrawal. But following the rapid fall of Kabul, the US has little of Kabul left to negotiate and Turkey must decide how it wants to proceed with the Taliban in power.
Both Turkish and Taliban officials have signalled that they are open to dialogue with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating he could consider meeting with Taliban leaders in person. Ankara is seeking to advance diplomatic contacts and has made efforts to establish contacts with Pakistan. Ankara’s strategy to gain influence in Kabul seeks to export Turkish experts to take up influential positions in the new Taliban government. Ankara has risks to consider before engaging militarily in Afghanistan.
But the public drive to engage in grand pan-Islamic narratives to domestic audiences in Turkey may just be a government in crisis attempting to deflect from disaster at home. Turkey has not handled the floods and wildfires adequately and its public is demanding answers from a government that appears distracted abroad. Turkey faces an uphill battle in managing the risks of such an engagement parallel to domestic interests.
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