In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, August 17th
Turkey and Israel Prepare to Restore Full Diplomatic Relations, Germany is Radicalizing its Objectives in Ukraine, and other stories.
Turkey and Israel Prepare to Restore Full Diplomatic Relations
Turkey and Israel have agreed to restore full diplomatic relations return ambassadors to each other’s capitals. The announcement ends a four-year diplomatic crisis that soured relations between the two regional powers. Upgrading relations will contribute to deepening ties between the two peoples and open opportunities for further expanding economic, trade, and cultural cooperation.
Israeli-Turkish relations have gone through a series of crises over the past decade, most recently in 2018 when the Israel moved its embassy to Jerusalem and Turkey expelled the Israeli ambassador from Ankara in response. More recently relations have warmed as Israeli and Turkish officials have sped up the normalization process, albeit with reservations. Improved trust comes after a civil aviation agreement was signed and the two sides agreed on increased alignment regarding regional counter-terrorism efforts.
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Germany is Radicalizing its Objectives in Ukraine
When there is “no room” for negotiations, what objective is Berlin pursuing? Early in the war in Ukraine, senior members of the German Bundestag Defense Committee were initially calling for a ceasefire. Today, leadership in this committee increasingly insist on pursuing peace through military victory over Russia in Ukraine. Berlin is thus radicalizing its objectives in Ukraine by calling for the unlimited use of weapons over an unspecified duration of warfare to defeat Russia on the battlefield.
The German government is looking to achieve a long-term victory over Russia in Ukraine by embracing policies aimed at increased centralization over foreign policy issues for Brussels. Berlin’s burgeoning centralized power in the European Union, according to the German chancellor Olaf Scholz, must be used to transform the EU into a “geopolitical actor” that would “put an end” to the use of veto on matters of foreign policy by individual member states. In effect, Berlin is advocating for Germany to occupy a position of expanded sovereignty as other nations relinquish their sovereignty for the economic and geopolitical benefit of German leadership at the head of a geopolitical European bloc.
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Russia Builds Up Malian Air Force
As the French military announced it had completed its withdrawal from Mali, Russia has secured another major arms deal with the Malian government. This state of affairs is reflective of the broader contest between Moscow and Paris over influence in Mali, and for now Moscow appears to be the power better positioned to influence events on the ground after the withdrawal of French forces.
The Malian Air Force has been one of the main beneficiaries of increased military cooperation between Bamako and Moscow. Vulnerabilities and capability gaps exposed by the 2012 uprising in northern Mali have convinced Mali’s military leadership to take a more realistic approach to the security issues the country faces. This has mostly meant purchasing Russian aircraft for use by its armed forces, with Russian close air support aircraft, jet trainers, attack and transport helicopters, as well as unmanned systems, today making up a significant part of the country’s military capabilities.
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Saudi Economy Boosted by High Oil Prices
The Saudi economy is expected to grow 7.6 percent this year, a considerable increase from last year’s up 3.2 percent increase. This growth, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), can primarily be attributed to soaring oil revenues, which have significantly boosted Saudi revenues.
Saudi Arabia has sought to attract foreign investment and diversify its oil-reliant economy in recent years, and increased oil prices are an opportunity for Riyadh to stow away the funds needed to finance its non-oil development goals. Nevertheless, oil remains a major source of revenues for the Saudi state, and a highly valuable commodity to possess in the midst of a global energy crisis. High prices have already worked to boost state revenues as the state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco recently unveiled record profits of $48.4 billion in the second quarter of 2022.