In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, August 30th
Military Takes Power in Gabon After a Coup, UAE Achieves Record Non-Oil Foreign Trade, and other stories.
Military Takes Power in Gabon After a Coup
The political landscape in Gabon has taken a dramatic turn as military officers announced the seizure of power and the placement of President Ali Bongo under house arrest. The coup marks the eighth instance of political upheaval in West and Central Africa since 2020, with countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, and Niger also experiencing similar challenges. Brice Oligui Nguema, the head of Gabon's presidential guard, has emerged as a new ruler, arguing that Bongo's contested health condition and allegations of constitutional disregard during the election warranted the intervention.
This coup raises significant concerns for regional stability, given the recent surge of political instability across the region. The successful takeover in Gabon underscores potential vulnerabilities in the nation's defence infrastructure, as well as the broader challenges faced by countries in West and Central Africa in maintaining stable governance. The coup further exposes the tensions between the Bongo family's decades-long rule and widespread dissatisfaction among citizens due to perceived inequality in distributing the country's wealth, notably from its oil and mineral resources. The potential for supply disruptions in oil markets is another concern, as Gabon is a member of OPEC and produces around 200,000 barrels of oil per day.
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The US and Palau Enter into Maritime Agreement
The United States and Palau have entered into a new agreement granting American ships the authority to enforce maritime regulations within Palau's exclusive economic zone. The accord permits the US Coast Guard to independently uphold regulations on behalf of Palau without requiring a Palauan officer to be onboard. The move comes amid growing competition between the US and China in the Pacific, with Palau's president's appealing for US assistance.
This development reflects broader geopolitical dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region. With China asserting its maritime claims, including in disputed territories, the US is bolstering partnerships to counterbalance China's influence. This agreement aligns with US efforts to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific, potentially serving as a deterrent against China's assertive actions. While the statement does not explicitly mention China, the timing of the agreement amid heightened maritime tensions underscores the broader strategic implications. The United States is working to strengthen alliances and partnerships in the region to ensure shared resources' protection and maintain a rules-based order in the Pacific.
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UAE Achieves Record Non-Oil Foreign Trade
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has achieved a record non-oil foreign trade of 1.239 trillion United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED), equivalent to $340 billion, in the first half of this year. The announcement was made by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai. The growth represents a 14.4% increase compared to the same period last year. Notably, the UAE's non-oil exports have also seen substantial growth, surpassing what was achieved in a full year just five years ago.
The rise in the UAE's non-oil foreign trade can be attributed to multiple factors, including investor-friendly policies and the signing of economic partnership agreements with countries such as India and Turkey. China remains the UAE's largest trading partner, followed by India, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. The UAE's strategic partnerships and economic initiatives are boosting its position as a key player in international trade, aligning with its ambitions to enhance its digital economy and overall economic diversification. The impressive trade growth coincides with the UAE's focus on fostering global partnerships by providing an attractive environment for investments. These developments, alongside the nation's ongoing digital transformation efforts, indicate a concerted push towards sustainable economic development and international influence.
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Argentina and Japan Strengthen Bilateral Ties
Argentine Foreign Minister Santiago Cafiero met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo to discuss enhancing Japanese investments in Argentina. This meeting marks the 125th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two nations. The leaders discussed a commitment to increasing technological cooperation and strengthening Japanese presence in sectors such as agribusiness, energy, and mining. Notably, both countries emphasized their shared values of rules-based multilateralism, democracy, human rights protection, and peacekeeping.
Japan, being a global economic powerhouse and a major advocate for hydrogen energy, is exploring partnerships with Argentina, which boasts ample human and natural resources for such collaborations. Argentina's strategic position in supplying resources like hydrogen and ammonia aligns with Japan's energy transition goals. The meeting signifies an effort to leverage each country's strengths for mutual benefit and potentially create a significant avenue for Argentina's energy investments and exports. The diplomatic outreach is an example of how nations are tapping into shared interests and priorities to foster cooperation and enhance economic growth.
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Russian Airbase Hit in Long-Range Drone Attacks
In the latest round of drone attacks on Russian airbases, four Il-76 Candid heavy cargo aircraft were reportedly damaged at Kresty Air Base in Pskov Oblast, Russia. The attack comes as part of a series of large-scale drone strikes in the Russian heartland. While some reports claim up to 20 involved, Russian sources have confirmed the damage caused to the airbase, which houses the 334th Military Transport Aviation Regiment.
The success of these strikes raises questions about Russia's air defence systems and their effectiveness in countering these drone threats. Despite Russia's assertions of utilizing air defences and electronic warfare measures to counter drone attacks, drones are managing to evade these defences and cause significant damage to military installations and equipment. Furthermore, the possibility of Western intelligence support cannot be ruled out, as the precision and strategic targeting observed in the drone attacks suggests a level of information that could be provided by external actors. The willingness of Ukraine to engage in such attacks deep within Russian territory reflects a new phase in the ongoing conflict and adds another layer of complexity to the already strained geopolitical dynamics in the region.
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Paramilitary Leader Proposes Sudan Peace Plan
The head of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, has proposed a 10-point plan titled “Sudan Reborn” for achieving lasting peace in the war-torn country. The plan includes negotiations to end the ongoing conflict, a non-symmetrical federal system that represents Sudan's diversity, democratic elections, and the formation of a unified Sudanese army under civilian oversight. While Hemedti's plan aligns with international calls for a peaceful resolution, the realities on the ground remain complex and challenging.
The war, now in its 20th week, emerged after tensions surrounding the integration of the RSF into the army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The two generals, who were previously allies, have been locked in conflict since the coup that ousted former President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. The conflict has led to accusations of ethnic cleansing and human rights violations by the RSF and allied militias. Al-Burhan, meanwhile, rejected calls for a ceasefire and labelled the RSF as traitors. The ongoing conflict has led to significant casualties, displacement, and a deteriorating humanitarian situation. International mediation efforts have faced challenges, and a lasting solution remains elusive.