In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, December 1st
Tensions Rise as Military Posturing Over Ukraine Continues and Views from China Regarding the Issue of Taiwan
Tensions Rise as Military Posturing Over Ukraine Continues
As members of NATO meet in Riga, Latvia, a war of words is developing involving the key players in the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. While a 2015 peace agreement brokered by France and Germany has helped end large-scale battles in Ukraine’s east, efforts to reach a political settlement have failed again and again, with sporadic skirmishes a common sight along the line of contact since then. As both Kiev and Moscow fail to reach any form of agreement, and both continue to build-up a military presence along their border, tensions are reaching a boiling point. Russia has mobilised a considerable force on its border with Ukraine and condemned the delivery of weapons by some NATO countries to Ukraine, while Ukraine has called on NATO to prepare a harsh set of sanctions as a deterrent to Russia’s troop movements.
With NATO leaders reiterating their support for Ukraine, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said that any expansion of NATO military infrastructure in Ukraine was a red line for Moscow. Putin emphasised that he is seeking “reliable and long-term security guarantees” which will prevent any further deployment of NATO weapons near Russia’s borders in addition to Russia’s longstanding opposition to the accession of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO. Moreover, Putin also noted that Russia would respond in kind if NATO deployed missiles in Ukraine capable of striking Moscow. The Russian position is likely to be reiterated when diplomats from the US and Russia meet after the NATO summit in Riga wraps up.
Ukraine is in a difficult position amidst this latest bout of military posturing and rhetoric. Given the country is not a member of NATO, the proclamations of support coming from NATO member states mean little in the event of an armed Russian incursion into its territory. NATO members would not be obligated to defend Ukraine, and may not even be able to provide the country with any substantial military support in time to make a difference against Russian forces. As such, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on NATO to put together a “deterrence package” of sanctions and increase military cooperation with Ukraine as a means to deter Moscow. As troop numbers surge, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stressed that Ukraine can be protected only by its strong, powerful army. While an imminent Russian incursion is not a foregone conclusion, the reality on the ground points to further escalation in the weeks ahead.
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Views from China Regarding the Issue of Taiwan
The relationship between the China, Taiwan, and the United States is the most sensitive and volatile issue in Sino-American relations. Stability in the relationship has mostly been based on an understanding reached between Beijing and Washington when the two normalised ties in 1979, and has since hinged on a US affirmation for the One China viewpoint. But since then, severe tensions over Taiwan have emerged at various times. These episodes of increased tensions have largely been the result of unilateral actions taken by one side which were then interpreted by the other as a violation of the understanding. Now, Sino-American tensions over Taiwan are at unprecedented levels, and the relationship between Washington and Beijing is increasingly marked by larger-scale military activities, US signals of support for Taiwan, and increasingly ominous exchanges of rhetoric.
With Chinese views on the issue rarely discussed, taking a closer look at statements made by Chinese officials on the Taiwan issue may shed light on Beijing’s calculus. Upon closer inspection, statements regarding China’s stance toward Taiwan have been more or less consistent up to the present day. According to many statements released by Chinese officials, to achieve reunification with Taiwan via peaceful means would be the preferable outcome and in the overall interests of China. Yet while statements made on the key elements of policy toward Taiwan display consistency over time, new features have emerged since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012. Xi has chosen to apply an association between the idea of national rejuvenation and his championed China Dream, to be achieved by 2049. However, it remains unclear whether reunification with Taiwan is truly viewed as a goal to be completed by 2049, or if instead the statements merely allude to an aspiration.
To policymakers in Beijing, the growing tensions over Taiwan are the result of moves made by the government in Taipei which increasingly contradict the One China perspective. Moreover, statements released by Chinese officials often explain Taipei’s moves away from Beijing as a consequence of increased multifaceted US support for Taiwan. While China’s policy approach to Taiwan has changed little over time, many officials nonetheless regard the current situation as dangerous and precarious, and one which requires increased deterrence efforts by Beijing against both Taipei and Washington. Since a similar view can be seen in Washington, the odds of a deterrence-driven escalation by both sides are on the rise even if both Washington and Beijing continue to express support for a peaceful resolution of the issue.
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