In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, December 13th
COP28 Deal Signals Global Pivot Away from Fossil Fuels, UK Promotes Business in Azerbaijan's Contested Reconstruction, and other stories.
COP28 Deal Signals Global Pivot Away from Fossil Fuels
The COP28 climate summit concluded with unanimous agreement from 197 nations on a deal to transition away from fossil fuels. The COP28 agreement saw fractious countries unite to explicitly address the need to transition from fossil fuels driving climate change. But it is a delicate compromise, balancing the priorities of major oil economies and developing nations.
The unanimous consent came only after revisions and high-stakes talks involving the summit host UAE, a top OPEC producer. Yet surprisingly, other big oil producing states like Saudi Arabia accepted the language on ending oil and gas reliance in a shift signalling new possibilities. Poorer countries secured concessions on finance needed to cut emissions and adapt, but lacked support for bolder 2025 peak emission targets. As the US and EU touted progress, island nations warned key 1.5C Paris goals remain endangered without urgent cuts. Now attention turns to how revised national plans and finance pledges translate rhetoric into action.
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Milei Election Brings Argentina's Pro-US Foreign Policy Shift
The election of Javier Milei as Argentina's next president signals a geopolitical shift, with his pledges for a pro-US foreign policy departing from the more balanced approach of previous governments. Following an inauguration ceremony attended by high-level US and European officials, Milei's administration has quickly unveiled painful IMF-backed austerity measures to address economic troubles.
A White House delegation swiftly endorsed negotiations with the IMF while eyeing opportunities to develop Argentina's lithium industry. Milei's potential nuclear cooperation, military purchases like F-16 jets, and critiques of Beijing suggest ending Argentina's strategic ambiguity between the US and China. As Buenos Aires courts stronger American ties, Russia loses a regional partner, while China faces a harsher economic environment for investment in Argentina.
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Israel Struggles to Reign in Hezbollah Threat from Lebanon
Israel faces severe challenges re-establishing stable deterrence rules with Hezbollah on its northern border. Recent exchanges of rocket fire in southern Lebanon has led to evacuations of Israeli border towns. Meanwhile, Hamas has also expanded its presence there, defying Israel's demands for withdrawal.
This raises the alarming prospect of uncontrolled escalation, triggering a devastating Israel-Hezbollah war that is sure to draw in regional actors. Neither diplomacy nor covert action seem reliable remedies given Tehran’s close ties with Hezbollah. While finishing Gaza operations remains the priority for Israel, domestic voices cry out for military action beyond just Gaza. With Israel forcefully demanding buffer zones, the risky instability will fuel Israeli military adventurism absent external power brokers.
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Applying a New Lens to NATO's Civil-Military Dynamics in Afghanistan
There is a gap in scholarship on the civil-military dynamics within multinational organizations like NATO and how these impact war outcomes. Theorists largely ignore NATO, while studies on NATO minimize its internal workings to focus on state relations, especially US-European ties. This risks missing consequential internal authority structures shaping strategy and operations.
The case of NATO in Afghanistan demonstrates the benefit of applying a civil-military relations lens. NATO ultimately failed to defeat the Taliban, in part by deferring excessively to military authorities on the ground regarding Afghan troop readiness and in strategy development. Politically-agreed objectives for Afghanistan from NATO's civilian International Staff were dismissed by commanders like Gen. Stanley McChrystal as useless. Meanwhile, military leaders provided overly optimistic, sometimes false reporting on Afghan forces up the chain of command. With tiny civilian staffs, NATO political leaders lacked oversight, contributing to the 2021 collapse.
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The UK Encourages Investments in Karabakh
The United Kingdom is promoting opportunities for UK businesses in Azerbaijan's reconstruction of territories it has annexed from Armenia. An online event held by the UK Embassy touted commercial opportunities for businesses in rebuilding efforts. However, the territories extend beyond those populated by ethnic Azerbaijanis into Nagorno-Karabakh itself, from which Armenians were displaced.
Support for redevelopment across these territories signifies de facto UK backing of Baku’s position. The embassy claims non-involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh’s reconstruction. But Azerbaijan envisions resettlement of all reclaimed lands, including Armenian areas. Officials highlighted distinct UK support for reconstructing Shusha, a symbolic town in Karabakh, with business leaders at the event told the broader region was “an empty land ready to be filled.” This form of commercial encouragement raises obstacles for displaced Armenians to return.
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Deterrence Is Not Enough to Prevent Taiwan War
China is strongly deterred from attacking Taiwan due to the high likelihood of failure and enormous costs any conflict would incur. The U.S. must maintain this robust deterrence, but there is little room to further heighten it. Deterrence alone cannot prevent war, however. If Beijing concludes peaceful reunification is impossible, Chinese leaders may still attack, despite risks.
The US may seek to reinforce the belief that non-violent paths remain open. Bolstering deterrence without offering Beijing an exit strategy risks causing the very conflict Washington aims to avoid. Actions to continue to convey US resolve can feed suspicions that permanent Taiwanese separation is the true goal. A consciously duplicitous strategy may be needed — combining serious war preparations with reassurances that the US would accept peaceful reunification. This two-pronged deterrence and dissuasion approach could better reduce the odds of a cross-strait war in the near-term.