In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, December 21st
Morocco to Supply T-72B Tanks to Ukraine, Australia and China Agree on Further Negotiations to Restore Ties, and other stories.
Saudi Arabia Open to More Talks with Iran
Comments made by the Iranian minister of foreign affairs suggest a recent meeting between regional leaders at the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership saw positive developments in the Iran-Saudi Arabia relationship.
The two regional rivals cut diplomatic ties in 2016 after a crowd stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran following the execution of a prominent Shia leader. Since then, dialogue has been scarce and progress in Iran-Saudi talks has been negligible due to vastly differing interests. Saudi Arabia is seeking an end to direct and indirect Iranian attacks on its territory, while Iran wants reduced Israeli and US involvement in the region and better diplomatic relations with the Gulf in general.
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Morocco to Supply T-72B Tanks to Ukraine
The United States appears to have successfully convinced Morocco to supply its T-72 tank and replacement parts to Ukraine. Until now Morocco has maintained a somewhat ambiguous position on the war in Ukraine. The sale likely precedes the transfer of US-built M1 Abrams main battle tanks (MBTs) to compensate for Morocco’s transfer.
Ukraine is in need of as many Cold War-era Soviet tank parts it can find in order to repair the many T-72s knocked out of combat. Moroccan T-72s are being modernised by the company Excalibur Army in the Czech Republic and will be supplied directly from there to Ukraine when upgrades are complete. In exchange, the United States will likely be compensating Morocco by offering other MBTs, such as the M1 Abrams that Rabat has already acquired before.
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China and Russia Begin Joint Naval Exercises in the East China Sea
China and Russia have begun a week-long joint live-fire naval exercise in the East China Sea as the two powers step up cooperation in an increasingly tense Western Pacific. China’s and Russia’s naval assets are in the East China Sea focusing on raising the level of mutual trust and promoting the establishment of a joint maritime patrol mechanism.
The joint drills are part of what is becoming routine military cooperation between the Chinese and Russian militaries. This time reports suggest China’s involvement in the drill will feature Chinese destroyers Baotou and Jinan, frigates Binzhou and Yancheng, a supply ship, a submarine, fixed-wing early warning aircraft and anti-submarine patrol aircraft. Russia, meanwhile, has brought the missile cruiser Varyag, the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov, corvettes Aldar Tsydenzhapov and Sovershenny, and a supply ship for the joint exercises.
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US to Send $1.85bn in Military Aid to Ukraine
The United States has announced that it will provide a further $1.85bn in military aid to Ukraine as Zelenskyy visits Washington to plead for more support. The package includes roughly $1bn in weapons and equipment from US Pentagon stocks, and includes the Patriot battery. The remaining $850m in funding will come from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
Zelenskyy and other Ukraine officials have pressed Western leaders to provide more advanced weapons, including the Patriots, to help their country in its war with Russia. The Patriot would be the most advanced surface-to-air missile system the West has provided to Ukraine to help repel Russian aerial attacks. The timing of the military aid announcement — as Zelenskyy makes his first trip out of Ukraine since the war began — sends a strong message of continued U.S. support for Ukraine as the war drags on.
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Australia and China Agree on Further Negotiations to Restore Ties
The foreign ministers of Australia and China have met in Beijing as they professed a mutual desire to restore high-level political contacts. Both sides released positive statements after the meeting that agreed to explore dialogue on trade, human rights and climate change.
China's warmer approach indicates a desire from Beijing to restore working relations with Australia. However, despite Beijing’s overtures, Australia is unlikely to make any major concessions to restore bilateral relations. Australia's strategic competition with China will remain unchanged, with Australia deeply committed to a US-led zero-sum game with China over regional security issues.