In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, February 2nd
Polish Government Approves Weapons Deliveries to Ukraine, Russia Issues Follow-up Questions to NATO and the OSCE, US Prepares to Deploy Ships and Aircraft to the UAE
Polish Government Approves Weapons Deliveries to Ukraine
The Polish government has adopted a resolution which will see the country provide man-portable air defence systems, drones, and ammunition to Ukraine. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki made the announcement at a press conference held before boarding a flight to Kiev, where he will meet with Ukraine’s president, and other officials. Morawiecki also said that Poland will provide humanitarian aid and other vital necessities to Ukraine.
Unlike weapons systems being shipped to Ukraine by other NATO member states, which typically involve US-made weapons, Poland is able to freely transfer its locally-produced Piorun GROM-M MANPADS air defense missile systems to Ukraine without outside validation. The shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles and drones will add to the growing amount of diverse military aid that various NATO member states are supplying to Ukraine, and will work to further improve their capabilities and overall capacity in targeting both ground and air units. It is likely that the drone systems being prepared for delivery include Polish-made WARMATE loitering munitions, commonly referred to as “suicide drones.” The Polish government's decision follows similar announcements made by authorities in Latvia and Lithuania, both of which plan to send shipments of US-made Stinger launchers and missiles to Ukraine.
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Russia Issues Follow-up Questions to NATO and the OSCE
Russian President Vladimir Putin has openly admitted on a visit to Hungary that the United States and its allies have failed to satisfy two of Russia's key demands on European security guarantees. While Russian statements have clarified that Putin has read the counterproposals presented by the US (of which the Spanish publication EL PAÍS released an unconfirmed leaked copy), a formal response has not been delivered by Moscow as Russian officials continue to analyse them. In the meantime, Russia has sent follow-up questions regarding the counterproposals delivered by the US, seeking to clarify the ‘indivisible security principle’ employed in established security frameworks.
The indivisible security principle was first established in the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, and can be surmised as the freedom for any state to choose its own security arrangements as long as such moves do not come “at the expense of the security of other states.” Since then, the indivisible security principle has been present in numerous international treaties such as the 1997 Russia-NATO Founding Act or the 1990 Charter of Paris. However, the concept remains ambiguous and contradicts notions of collective security established within the NATO and OSCE frameworks, particularly in the case of increased NATO military involvement in Ukraine. The international system cannot rely on both collective security and indivisible security interpretations when navigating the legal framework for European security, therefore there is a pressing need for a middle-ground approach.
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US Prepares to Deploy Ships and Aircraft to the UAE
The United States will deploy a guided missile destroyer and F-35 fighter aircraft to help assist in the defence of the United Arab Emirates after a series of missile attacks have exposed weaknesses in UAE defences. The deployment is justified on the grounds that the US contigent will “assist the UAE against the current threat,” after a phone call was held between US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.
The guided missile destroyer USS Cole will join the UAE Navy and make a port call in Abu Dhabi, while the US will also deploy an unspecified number of fifth-generation F-35 fighter aircraft. According a statement released by US Defence Department, the deployment is intended to be a “clear signal” that the US “stands with the UAE as a long-standing strategic partner.” In addition to the deployment, the US will also be provoding early warning intelligence to UAE forces as a means to counter the growing number of missile attacks the country has come under since UAE forces intensified their involvement in the conflict in Yemen. The UAE is a critical part of the Saudi-led and US-supported coalition fighting Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and has sought out Washington’s help after the country suffered its third missile attack in three weeks.
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