In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, February 28th
Violence Erupts in Chad, German Frigate's Eventful First Operations in Red Sea, and other stories.
Violence Erupts in Chad
Heavy fighting has erupted in Chad's capital N'Djamena, including gunfire heard near the headquarters of a political party. Several people were reportedly killed in earlier clashes near the country's intelligence agency building. Accounts differ on the exact events. The government claims the agency was attacked by members of the opposition Socialist Party Without Borders. The party asserts soldiers opened fire on a group of its members searching for the body of a party official killed the day prior.
The violence comes amid tensions surrounding Chad's planned presidential election later this year. Reports of significant clashes in the central area of N'Djamena indicate the possibility of a coup attempt or military uprising against Chadian leader Mahamat Idriss Deby. This, coupled with the attack on Chad's intelligence agency, underscores the prevalent political instability within the country. If fighting spreads, it may provide Deby a pretext to postpone elections and consolidate power. A successful coup could also leverage widespread anti-French sentiment to expel French troops.
Read more about this story here.
Australia Bets on Conventional Naval Expansion
Australia has announced plans to renew its ageing naval surface fleet over the next 20 years. The new force will be two-tiered, with Tier 1 focused on air defence, missiles, presence, and undersea warfare. This will comprise new destroyers, frigates, and optionally-crewed robotic surface vessels. Tier 2 will specialize in anti-submarine warfare to protect trade routes and amphibious forces.
While the expansion to 26 vessels from 11 makes for a significant increase, the reality is that a drawn-out building program may not reach completion until the 2040s. The plans also raise resourcing concerns, given shortages in military personnel and budgets potentially strained by major concurrent submarine and ship projects. The proposed force leans surprisingly conventional amidst the robotic revolution seen in the Russia-Ukraine naval war. The plans overlook potentially transformational unmanned systems that could provide more small, low-cost vessels rather than traditional capital-intensive ships.
Read more about this story here.
Mapping Out Myanmar's Multifaceted Civil War Actors
There are a wide range of ethnic armed organizations, resistance armies, and political groups engaged in Myanmar's ongoing civil conflict. Key players include the United Wa State Army, the strongest insurgent group with 30,000 troops; the Karen National Union; the Kachin Independence Army; the Arakan Army; the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army; and the Chinland Defense Force. With over 60 groups covering vast territory, the conflict involves a web of temporary ceasefires, clashes, and unstable coalitions as competing interests vie for control.
Central groups leading resistance efforts are the National Unity Government, the exiled civilian shadow government, and its armed wing, the People's Defense Forces. The ousted National League for Democracy party also retains significant support. On the other side, the Tatmadaw military commands Myanmar's state forces, ruling through the State Administration Council since the 2021 coup d'état led by General Min Aung Hlaing. The military backs collaborating ethnic armies like the United Wa State Army and Border Guard Forces to combat resistance groups. The complex patchwork of alliances includes multi-ethnic umbrellas like the United Nationalities Federal Council, Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee, Northern Alliance, and Three Brotherhood Alliance.
Read more about this story here.
Azerbaijan-Armenia Peace Talks Resume Despite Power Asymmetry
Azerbaijan and Armenia are resuming long-stalled peace negotiations in Berlin on February 28th, with the talks closely watched by regional heavyweights Turkey, Iran, and Russia. The meeting comes on the heels of rising military tensions, including a recent clash that killed 4 Armenian soldiers near the countries' volatile border.
Speculation abounds a tentative deal may finally establish diplomatic ties but leave thorny issues unaddressed, including Azerbaijani territorial demands. With strong Turkish backing, assertive Azerbaijan retains the upper hand militarily and diplomatically. Armenian overtures to the West and Turkey have yielded little, forcing Armenia to cling to a shaky status quo. While a minimalist breakthrough deal could emerge in Berlin, lasting stability remains elusive, especially given the vast power asymmetry and abundance of flashpoints that still threaten to trigger renewed fighting.
Read more about this story here.
India's Ties with Russia Undergoing Steady Erosion
Recent meetings between Indian and Russian officials, including at the ministerial level, portray an image of an unshakeable partnership that serves as a bedrock of both countries’ foreign policies. Leaders emphasize cooperation across defence, space, energy, and nuclear domains. However, beneath the rhetoric lies a relationship undergoing a managed decline across multiple fronts. This downward trajectory is apparent in decreasing high-level bilateral engagements, unrealized economic potential, and emerging alternatives to Russian arms transfers.
Fundamentally altering the structural factors compelling selective Indo-Russian cooperation remains unlikely. Russia still offers India vital support at institutions like the UN Security Council, hedging potential vis-à-vis China and the West, and partnerships across economic and military sectors. However, the war in Ukraine clearly demonstrates the risks of overreliance on Russia amid Moscow’s deepening ties with Beijing and questions over its defence industry’s continued capacity to maintain export quotas. While the US and Europe currently tolerate India’s Russian energy imports and ties, future governments will likely work to drive fissures in perspectives. India will aim to balance its relationships with all major powers, but faces increasing external challenges in maintaining its prized strategic autonomy as binary blocs solidify in the emerging multipolar order.
Read more about this story here.
German Frigate's Eventful First Operations in Red Sea
The German navy frigate FGS Hessen recently deployed to the Red Sea has had an action-packed start to its mission protecting shipping from Houthi rebel attacks. On February 28th, Hessen shot down two Houthi drones that approached the ship at close range using deck guns and missiles. However, the previous day Hessen was also involved in a friendly fire incident, unsuccessfully firing two missiles at a US MQ-9 Reaper drone that failed to properly identify itself.
Hessen is part of the new EU naval task force Operation Aspides conducting counter-Houthi patrols alongside other European navies. But some allies like France have resisted joining the parallel US-led Operation Guardian Prosperity. Questions have also arisen whether Hessen brought adequate missile stockpiles for intense maritime operations, as other US and UK warships have expended many munitions countering Houthi threats. The coming days will test Germany’s ability to substantively contribute amid growing international efforts to secure one of the world's busiest shipping lanes.