In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, February 7th
Thailand Spearheads Fresh Peace Push on Myanmar Crisis, New Nordic-Baltic Defence Pacts Signal US Strategic Shift, and other stories.
Thailand Spearheads Fresh Peace Push on Myanmar Crisis
Thailand has launched a new initiative to try to bring peace to Myanmar by engaging with key stakeholders involved in the conflict. This includes meeting with Myanmar's military leaders, ethnic armed groups, countries like China, India, and the US, as well as third party mediators like Japan and Norway.
The initiative involves establishing a humanitarian zone along the Thai-Myanmar border by the end of February to provide aid to displaced people inside Myanmar. This will be done in coordination with the Myanmar Red Cross and be monitored by the ASEAN disaster management body. Thailand’s goal is to reduce violence and instability in Myanmar through dialogue between the military regime and other conflict actors. While chances of near-term peace seem low after years of civil war, this marks the first concrete attempt to change the diplomatic status quo since the failed 2021 ASEAN peace plan. Thailand's leadership on this demonstrates that the 2024 ASEAN chair Laos is effectively delegating the Myanmar crisis to Bangkok, which is most impacted by the fighting after Myanmar itself.
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Brussels Launches Legal Fight Over Hungary's Sovereignty Laws
The European Commission has launched legal action against Hungary over recent national sovereignty laws. The laws, passed in December, clamp down on foreign funding of political candidates and organizations with influence over public discourse. A new government-appointed office has broad powers to investigate targets and demand information from them and intelligence agencies.
The Commission says this violates EU values and rights, presenting Hungary with 2 months to respond before potential court cases and fines. The move reflects ongoing tensions between Brussels and Budapest over rule of law and, more recently, Ukraine aid. Though the legislation may eventually be struck down, analysts warn its immediate chilling effect will be significant.
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Cracks Emerge in NATO Over US Strikes in the Middle East
The United States is escalating its military involvement against Iran-backed groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. However, its European and NATO allies are divided in their response. While some countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Greece have joined the US-led naval coalition, others like France prefer an autonomous EU-led operation with unclear rules of engagement. Spain remains sceptical of any participation. Similarly, reactions to US strikes are mixed — some like Poland support Washington, while the EU calls for de-escalation to avoid direct clashes.
Underlying Europe's fragmented stance are differing perspectives on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Countries aligned with Israel back its right to counterattack rocket fire. But others see the Gaza conflict as the root cause of Middle East instability, so increased pressure on Iran and its allies would reduce incentive for Israel to agree to a ceasefire. Recent ICJ rulings against Israel's conduct in Gaza have not bridged these divides. While some states say the decisions are binding, others like Italy and Austria have suspended funding to Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA over alleged Hamas links. With only lowest common denominator consensus, the EU and NATO seem unable to formulate a unified policy amid deep internal rifts over priorities in the escalating Middle East crisis.
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Robots Won't Replace the Human Factor in Warfare Anytime Soon
Military leaders often argue that advanced technologies like robots and autonomous systems will reduce the need for large numbers of troops. However, this claim may be unfounded, especially in the case of land forces. Introducing new technologies regularly increases and changes, rather than decreases, personnel requirements. Drones require operators, technicians, communications specialists, force protection etc. There are also off-site image analysts and mission planners.
While some tasks like fire support may need fewer crew per weapon system, maintenance and other support needs increase. New tech brings complexity, requiring more specialized skills in demand outside the military too. Exploiting drone surveillance requires far more intel analysts. Adversaries also develop electronic warfare capabilities, necessitating short-range air defences and electronic protection specialists in tactical units that weren't needed before. There are irreducible minimums of troops needed to perform basic combat functions that tech can't replace. Tech displaces rather than eliminates personnel in many cases.
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EU Under Pressure to Deal with Sanctions Evaders
The EU is struggling to crack down on those facilitating the circumvention of Russia sanctions. By one estimate, almost half of Russia's battlefield imports still come from jurisdictions that have imposed sanctions. While the EU has undertaken internal and external efforts to tighten compliance and align third countries with its sanctions, deterrence tools to directly sanction circumvention facilitators remain underutilized.
The EU does have legal authority to sanction entities on reasonable suspicion of enabling breach of Russia sanctions. This could rely on risk indicators, like a company's main business suddenly shifting to export restricted goods to Russia. Adopting such a “reasonable suspicion” standard informed by circumvention red flags would enable swifter cooperation between member states, use of open-source intelligence to build designation files, collaboration with the private sector and more. It would also reinforce sanctions diplomacy leverage. With pressure growing over sanctions effectiveness and Russian sanctions evasion persisting, the EU may soon embrace sanctions against third-party actors that can reasonably be suspected of facilitating circumvention.
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New Nordic-Baltic Defence Pacts Signal US Strategic Shift
The US recently signed defence agreements granting access to 35 military bases across the Nordic-Baltic region. This signals not a withdrawal but a transformation of Washington's strategic role there. The deals operationally cement Sweden and Finland's NATO membership and enable bolstering of deterrence and defence capabilities. Most significantly, they help lay the groundwork for a posture aimed at denying any Russian attack on NATO territory.
This evolution anticipates Northern European countries assuming more defence responsibilities over time. The agreements address vulnerabilities like limited awareness of Russian undersea activity. They also connect the Baltic and Arctic areas into one strategic space, with new NATO members Sweden and Finland stretching across both. While securing NATO's northern flank short-term, the accords also enable a gradual US shift of focus to the Indo-Pacific once European allies develop self-reliant capabilities. Some US support would remain, but leadership roles would transition. Despite uncertainties around a continued US commitment to European security, these defence deals signal Washington's intends to transform the Nordic-Baltic region.