In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, February 14th
New ADNOC-BP Joint Gas Venture in Egypt, India and the UAE Chart Ambitious Trade Route, and other stories.
New ADNOC-BP Joint Gas Venture in Egypt
The UAE’s ADNOC and the UK energy giant BP are launching a gas joint venture in Egypt, harnessing their strategic partnership to enhance regional energy security. BP will contribute stakes in existing Egypt concessions, while ADNOC provides proportional capital for future growth. The deal encompasses producing gas fields like Zohr and Atoll along with undeveloped reserves and exploration rights.
The new gas-focused Egypt JV cements the deepening ADNOC-BP alliance as both increasingly collaborate globally. Just last year, the firms planned a joint venture to acquire an Israeli gas producer before being derailed by the war in Gaza. Now their Egypt deal displays pragmatism amid volatility, grasping opportunities even as divisions torment the neighbourhood. Together commanding extensive technical expertise and financial muscle, ADNOC and BP can drive productivity from Egypt's fields. Yet, fully realizing the JV's potential remains contingent on stability returning to the Middle East — elusive given toxic polarization around the Palestinian struggle.
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Erdoğan and El-Sisi Seek Ceasefire in Gaza
Turkish President Erdoğan and Egyptian President el-Sisi have called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza during bilateral talks in Cairo, as Ankara and Cairo repair long-frayed ties. Erdoğan urged Israel's Netanyahu to halt threats of a Rafah ground offensive, which could displace hundreds of thousands into Egypt. He also accused Israel of “massacres,” while el-Sisi warned against moves to “depopulate Gaza.”
The Gaza crisis has emerged as an early test of renewed Turkey-Egypt alignment after years of ruptured relations following el-Sisi's removal of a Muslim Brotherhood president close to Erdoğan. While strategic regional interests are propelling diplomatic reconciliation, the bloody war next door is escalating frictions. With Palestinians paying an appalling price, Ankara lambasts Israeli aggression, yet Cairo remains bound to its peace treaty and cowed by energy dependence on Israel. Navigating these divides will challenge the nascent Turkey-Egypt rapprochement.
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Russia Courts Latin America
Russia is working to strengthen ties with Latin American countries at recent summits. Moscow has proposed areas of collaboration in countering terrorism, cybersecurity and defending sovereignty — aligning with Russia's ideological messaging. Moscow spies openings here, courting leftist leaders like Guatemala's new president. Although concrete dividends look remote, by selectively targeting partnerships in strategic sectors, Moscow hopes to regain lost influence here.
Moscow refuses to abandon diplomatic dreams of sway in the region. But China's expansive networks and chequebook diplomacy massively overshadow Russia's capacities. Putin lacks the resources to significantly shift regional dynamics or meaningfully counter the US. Minor warming of ties with marginal players like Guatemala is unrealistic to alter the balance of power. Still, by pragmatically engaging partners across ideological fronts on issues of shared concern like terrorism and sovereignty, Moscow can lay the groundwork to gradually re-establish itself as a relevant voice. No seismic geopolitical shake-up is imminent. Yet, patiently playing the periphery may help Moscow slowly expand its room for manoeuvre.
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Israel's Looming Gaza Offensive Clouds Normalization
Israel's potential military operation targeting Rafah in Gaza poses concerning risks and complicates efforts to advance normalization agreements with Arab states. Saudi Arabia has linked any normalization deal to addressing Gaza's crisis and Palestinian statehood — contrasting Israel's military aims. Other Arab nations similarly prioritize the Palestinian cause, and Arab public sentiment opposing Israel also hampers normalization prospects.
Escalating Gaza tensions reinforce divergent priorities between Israel and regional actors, hindering diplomatic solutions. If Israel-Arab normalization is to resume, root causes inflaming Israeli-Palestinian hostilities must be resolved through compromise. The interplay between the Gaza crisis and stalled Israel-Arab normalization efforts spotlights the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's centrality to Middle East stability. With loss of trust running high and political will fractured across fractious domestic landscapes, forging common ground looks immensely difficult.
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India and the UAE Chart Ambitious Trade Route
India and the UAE have signed a framework agreement to establish a trade corridor connecting Europe and India via the Middle East by sea and rail, backed by the United States and the European Union. The deal aims to boost regional connectivity but comes amid heightened tensions tied to the Gaza crisis that have stalled normalization efforts between Israel and Arab states. Though details remain unclear, the corridor would traverse the Arabian Sea from India to the UAE, and continue through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel en route to Europe.
For India and the UAE, the pact signals a shared priority of advancing strategic interests even against a complex geopolitical backdrop. From energy to infrastructure, both nations envision deeper partnership serving their economic visions. However, regional volatility unleashed by Gaza's turmoil cannot be ignored. While the UAE pragmatically courts Israel, sympathy for Palestinians resonates on Arab streets. Safeguarding the maritime route as Yemen's conflict rages is another challenge. If championed actively, the corridor may boost India's global trade ambitions. But its feasibility remains contingent on easing divisions shaking the Middle East — difficult amid entrenched polarization around the Palestinian issue.
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US Rethinks Middle East Ties as Other Powers Expand Influence
As the United States nears completion of its Middle East withdrawal policy, Washington is reassessing regional ties. Pivotal events signal waning American sway, including recent attacks on its military bases. This perceived power vacuum has allowed other powers to strategically expand economic and security footholds. Most notably, China has superseded the US as the top Middle East oil consumer, redirecting capital flows away from the West.
While an initial US exit from the Middle East may seem advantageous, the risks to its global standing appear severe. China’s billions invested under its Belt and Road strategy has significantly bolstered its economy and global maritime capabilities — directly challenging US interests in maintaining naval supremacy. With Beijing steadily extending its reach into what the US perceives as its own sphere of influence in Europe, Washington is prompted to revert to Cold War-era “Denial Oil” containment policies. However, competing with China presents infinitely greater complexities than facing the Soviet Union.