In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, February 22nd
China Urges MDBs for More Involvement in African Debt Relief, Azerbaijan's President Accuses Iranian Government of Embassy Attack, and other stories.
China Urges MDBs for More Involvement in African Debt Relief
China is urging multilateral development banks (MDBs) to help in debt relief on the African continent and beyond. China's stance is not new and is shared by many African countries.
The African Union has called on MDBs to join the Debt Service Suspension Initiative to support low-income countries affected by the pandemic. Approximately one-third of African debt is owed to multilateral creditors, with the World Bank and the African Development Bank currently the largest multilateral financiers. MDB rates differ depending on a country's income, and the arguments for excluding MDBs from discussions around debt suspension, relief, or restructuring are questionable.
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Middle Corridor Trade Route Faces Challenges
The Middle Corridor, a trade route that links China and the markets of East Asia with Georgia, Turkey, and the markets of Europe, has both engendered excitement and disappointment for almost two decades. The excitement over the Middle Corridor lies in its potential to reduce the time needed to ship goods between East Asia and Europe to as few as twelve days, which would give the Northern Corridor and seaborne trade via the Indian Ocean a run for their money.
Progress on the Middle Corridor has been slow, but cargo shipments along the trade corridor have risen rapidly, given Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine and the West's subsequent economic sanctions on Moscow. This has caused countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus to search for an alternative overland trade route to global markets independent of Russia. The Middle Corridor has the potential to transform trade across Eurasia and, perhaps, the centres of power within it. To fulfil that potential, the countries along the corridor will have to tackle several daunting administrative, infrastructure, and political challenges.
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Israeli Settlement Legalization Attempt Sparks Tensions
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been relatively calm over the last two decades, but it appears to be heading for another round of violence. The fundamental dilemma for Israel has not changed since 1967 when it first conquered the West Bank from Jordan in the Six Day War. Withdrawing from the occupied territories risks future attacks, while incorporating the territories into Israel requires an existential compromise on either Israel’s democratic or Jewish character.
In addition, the current situation is more complicated due to the attempt to legalise the wildcat Israeli settlement Homesh, located outside Jenin in the northern West Bank. Tensions have mounted, and violence increased between settlers and local Palestinians, Palestinians and the army, and between settlers and the army in the few cases where the latter did try to put the brakes on. The Jenin sector, for 15 years the quietest in the territories, was by 2022 the epicentre of a new wave of Palestinian terrorism, which was now spilling onto Israel’s streets.
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China and Japan Hold First Security Talks in Four Years
China and Japan have held their first formal security talks in four years aimed at easing tensions, with both sides expressing concern over each other's military activities.
Japan is worried that China may use force to take control of Taiwan, while China is concerned about Japan's military build-up and "negative moves" regarding Taiwan. Japan plans to double its defence spending over the next five years to deter China from resorting to military action, while China spends more than four times as much as Japan on its armed forces. The talks also touched on the two neighbours' territorial dispute over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea and China's recent joint military drills with Russia.
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Azerbaijan's President Accuses Iranian Government of Embassy Attack
Azerbaijan's President, Ilham Aliyev, has accused the Iranian government of being responsible for the attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran on January 27. He stated that Iranian officials must be brought to justice along with the terrorist.
Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry had previously linked the attack to a recent anti-Azerbaijani campaign against the country in Iran, but had stopped short of blaming the Iranian government directly. Newly released footage appears to show Iranian law enforcement inaction during the incident, and Iranian authorities have called for Azerbaijan to avoid politicizing the incident as they promised to share the results of their investigation with Baku.