In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, February 8th
Investigation Uncovers US Involvement in Nord Stream Sabotage, The UK to Train Ukrainian Pilots on NATO-Standard Aircraft, and other stories.
Investigation Uncovers US Involvement in Nord Stream Sabotage
Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh claimed in a Substack post that the US Navy was responsible for damaging the Nord Stream pipelines. According to Hersh, the US and Norway likely collaborated in planting explosives in the Baltic Sea near Denmark to destroy the pipelines.
Norway has become a base for US military activity due to its western border with Russia and its long-range synthetic aperture radar. The US has invested in upgrading and expanding its Navy and Air Force facilities in Norway, including a refurbished submarine base and an air base with a fleet of patrol planes. The Norwegian government has passed a defence agreement allowing the US legal system jurisdiction in certain areas over American soldiers and Norwegian citizens. Hersh alleges that a team of deep-diving US and Norwegian operatives participated in the sabotage. The White House dismissed the statements made in the blog post as “utterly false.”
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The UK to Train Ukrainian Pilots on NATO-Standard Aircraft
The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak, has announced during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to London that the UK will train Ukrainian pilots on NATO-standard aircraft. In his speech to members of the UK parliament, Zelensky expressed gratitude for the expected provision of modern NATO aircraft to Ukraine, although no official announcement has been made.
The UK's move makes it the first NATO member state to train Ukrainian pilots on NATO-standard aircraft, indicating the increasing likelihood of NATO aircraft being provided to Ukraine to secure its skies in the long term. The British training program is likely to encourage other NATO countries, especially Eastern and Northern European states, to provide similar support to Ukraine's military. However, Western aircraft will not be readily available in Ukraine for a few months.
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How the Extensive Use of Sanctions Works Against US Interests
Sanctions have become a key policy for successive presidential administrations in the United States, targeting over 9,000 individuals, companies and economic sectors through 70 different sanctions programs. However, the effectiveness of sanctions may be ending due to changes in the international economic system and shifts in global geopolitics.
US sanctions have reshaped the global economic order and the US has found sanctions an appealing policy tool for decades. However, in many ways the employment of sanctions by the US as a tool of foreign policy has backfired, imposing costs on the US and its allies while encouraging targeted states towards policies to insulate their governments and economies from US pressure. The power of sanctions comes from the risk associated with non-compliance, but the long-term goal of changing the behaviour of states has had unpredictable consequences.
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Asia’s Dangerous New Arms Race
Japan has changed its security policy in response to Russia's war against Ukraine. This policy shift, decades in the making, is due to the increasing military strength of China, North Korea, the US, Australia, and India, leading to a security environment that is more severe than ever since World War II.
Japan is set to develop long-range strike capabilities, including the purchase of hundreds of US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles, and increase its defence budget by 60% over the next five years. Last month, Japan and the US announced a series of measures to strengthen their military alliance, including the establishment of a permanent joint military headquarters, new command and control arrangements, and plans to base a US Marine Littoral Regiment in southwestern Japan. The US-Japan alliance is shifting towards a war footing, representing a major departure from Japan's post-World War II defence strategy.
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Russia Reconsiders its Air Defence Strategy
Russia has redeployed some of its air defence systems to Moscow, following a number of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian military airfields. The effectiveness of Russia’s air defences have been brought into question after a number of Ukrainian long-range drone attacks.
These drone attacks have demonstrated to the Russian defence ministry a need for additional defence capabilities. The 1st Air Missile Defense Army has been defending Moscow since 2018 with the Pantsir system, which is capable of conducting single combat operations with a range of up to 20 km. However, a saturated drone attack is likely to penetrate whatever missile payload the Pantsir offers, and this likely affects Russia’s security calculations in protecting its military leadership.