In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, February 23rd

Morocco Establishes Military Zone Near Algeria, Turkey’s Response to Russia’s Escalation in Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 Halted Indefinitely

Morocco Establishes Military Zone Near Algeria

Morocco has made public the establishment of a militarized zone on its eastern border with Algeria. The move indicates growing tensions developing as distrust and militarization are on the rise between the two powers in the Maghreb, and the creation of a unique militarized zone is an early indication of a brewing military conflict. Morocco’s decision includes the creation of an eastern military zone aimed at generalizing the “defence system” and improving “military living” in regions where Morocco borders Algeria, a border roughly 1,559 km in length.

The decision by Rabat stipulates for the establishment of permanently-stationed military units, all of which are expected to be provided with residential compounds functioning under the supremacy of martial law. Major-General Mohamed Mekdad has been appointed to oversee this zone, with Morocco expected to gather considerable military forces in the border region between the two countries in the coming months. Since diplomatic relations were severed between the two countries in August, a regional rivalry has been inflamed by foreign involvement, leading to an escalation of tensions in the Maghreb. Algeria has been quick to condemn Morocco for its escalation of the conflict in Western Sahara, and responded by closing the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline. The geopolitical tensions associated with deeper US and Israeli engagement with Morocco have also been noticed by Algiers, with leadership wary of advanced arms flowing to Morocco, choosing to bolster their own security against the threat emanating from Morocco, and thereby participating in a regional arms race currently taking place in the region. 

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Turkey’s Response to Russia’s Escalation in Ukraine

An escalation in the Ukraine crisis has exposed the limits of the foreign policy approach Ankara has pursued in recent years. While other NATO member states have actively participated in crafting a set of sanctions against Russia following the Kremlin’s decision to recognize the independence of two breakaway territories in Ukraine, Turkey’s reaction has mainly focused on denouncing Moscow's decision without any sign of a broader participation in a sanctions regime led by the United States and other NATO member states.

Ankara's response shows the limits of the role Turkey can play in the crisis as a power that benefits from positive ties with Ukraine, Russia, and NATO. In a speech delivered after his return from a trip to Africa, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan joined an emergency NATO summit in which he stated that for Turkey, it is impossible to “give up” on cooperation with both Ukraine and Russia. Erdoğan’s statement is merely a reflection of Turkey’s uncomfortable position in the escalating crisis, with Ankara emerging as collateral damage, and with little possibility that Turkey will be joining the US & EU sanctions regime against Moscow. Turkey remains constrained due to close economic links with both countries, and this dependence cripples Turkey's freedom of action in the crisis.

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Nord Stream 2 Halted Indefinitely

Germany’s new Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has reportedly halted the certification process of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) natural gas pipeline. NS2’s parent company is Gazprom, the Russian state-owned energy giant which was recognized by the German government as a tool of the Russian state when Scholz marked the most dramatic measure yet aimed at punishing Moscow for its recognition of two separatist regions in Ukraine.

The $11bn infrastructure project has already caused serious problems in the relationship between Germany and the United States, with Washington and some EU member states pressuring Scholz for weeks on end to publicly state that the future of the NS2 pipeline would be imperilled if Russia made any overt military moves against Ukraine. Following President Biden’s own announcement that a set of US sanctions against Russia will include penalties against the builder of the $11 billion NS2 natural gas pipeline, Scholz has decided to give in to the pressure and has now indefinitely halted the project. While Germany has long maintained that the pipeline is a solely commercial project, NS2 also carries geopolitical consequences as it would bypass Ukraine, potentially depriving the country of approximately $2bn in transit fees from Russia.

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