In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, January 5th

Kazakhstan Calls for Assistance from CSTO Amid Mass Protests, Left-Wing Wave Sweeping Over South America, and The US Sanctions Bosnian-Serb Leader

Kazakhstan Calls for Assistance from CSTO Amid Mass Protests

Kazakhstan is in a state of unrest. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has declared a state of emergency and requested the help of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) allies to quell protests erupting across the country. As the protests escalated throughout the day, Tokayev dismissed the head of his security guard and the Deputy Head of the State Security Service of the Republic of Kazakhstan from their posts, and authorities shut down internet services. The decision to call for help from the Russian-led CSTO was justified by Tokayev on the grounds that protestors were overrunning multiple strategic facilities across the country.

Fuel prices are speculated to be a catalyst which triggered mass protests, though long-held grievances over corruption, and political and economic stagnation contributed to a popular movement. The government resigned in response to the unrest Kazakhstan, and the situation on the ground is difficult to interpret at this time. Tokayev has blamed foreign-trained forces for instigating unrest and has been quick to seek out the help of Russia. Uncertainty over Kazakhstan could prove to be a major headache for Russian policymakers at a time when Russia is preparing for intense talks over Ukraine. Kazakhstan is strategically, economically, and politically important to Moscow so an invitation from Nur-Sultan via the CSTO security channel will draw the Kremlin’s attention, and potentially even significant resources away from Ukraine.

Read more about this story here.

Leftist Wave Sweeping Over South America

A populist wave of left-wing politicians is sweeping across Latin America. Last year a left-wing politician in Peru, Pedro Castillo, won the country’s presidency on a platform centred around economic and social reform. Chile’s presidential election was won by Gabriel Boric, a former student activist who has expressed opposition to foreign firms extracting wealth from his country. Colombia could be next in this left-wing wave as senator Gustavo Petro holds a massive lead over his opponents in political polls. 

Colombia’s economy is now facing a key election which could see another South American nation with a left-wing anti-extractivist leader. The senator intends to end petroleum production when Colombia’s existing proven oil reserves of 1.8 billion barrels are drained. But Petro’s plan to end Colombia’s economic reliance on fossil fuels has caused concerned in Washington, with the US a key customer of Colombia’s energy exports. For Bogotá, Latin America’s third-largest oil producer, rising oil prices may help the country’s hydrocarbon sector drive economic growth and government revenue.

Read more about this story here.

The US Sanctions Bosnian-Serb Leader

The Dayton Peace Agreement of 1995 which established Bosnia and Herzegovina as a state prescribed the formation of two entities: a Bosniak-Croat-dominated federation and a Serb-run Republika Srpska. But while the US-brokered agreement has long been the bedrock of the status quo in the West Balkans, in recent months, Bosnia has been gradually slipping toward its worst political crisis since the 1990s. Bosnian Serbs have blocked the work of the central government and their leader Milorad Dodik has threatened to withdraw from state institutions. Now, the United States has employed sanctions to punish Dodik for violating the Dayton agreement.

US sanctions are in effect against Dodik and Alternativna Televizija, a media company that Washington says was used by Dodik to undermine trust in government institutions. In addition, the US Department of State barred two Bosnian officials from entering the country on the grounds that they damage the “public’s faith in their government’s democratic institutions and public processes.” Dodik is the Serb counterpart of the tripartite Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which rotates every eight months, and he has threatened to facilitate the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia.

Read more about this story here.