In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, January 26th
US Approves $2.5B in Arms Sales to Egypt, Turkey Offers to Mediate Between Ukraine & Russia, Accident on US Carrier Leaves F-35 Sinking in the South China Sea
US Approves $2.5B in Arms Sales to Egypt
The Biden administration has approved a massive arms sale to Egypt valued at roughly $2.5 billion. While the sale has not yet been finalized and still has to be ratified by Congress, details of the deal reveal the nature of the military transaction. The deal includes 12 Super Hercules C-130J transport aircraft with related maintenance equipment valued at roughly $2.2bn, with additional air defence radar systems worth an estimated $355m also forming a part of the proposed deal.
The US State Department justified the deal by stating that the sale of these aircraft and associated equipment to Egypt will support the “foreign policy and national security of the United States” by improving the defence capabilities of “a major non-NATO ally” that is an important “strategic partner in the Middle East.” For Egypt, the proposed batch of C-130Js will bolster the country’s airlift capabilities, and allow its armed forces to better support units on the battlefield. This enhanced airlift capability will also improve Cairo’s ability to monitor and police its borders, as well as drastically improve both the capacity and speed of the country’s ability to thwart internal security threats. Ties between Egypt and the US have gradually warmed since 2009, and the two now enjoy substantial political, economic, and military ties.
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Turkey Offers to Mediate Between Ukraine & Russia
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has offered to mediate the crisis between Russia and Ukraine. The growing spectre of war is cause for genuine alarm for Turkey, which would be among the first to suffer the consequences of a broader military conflict in Ukraine. While Ukraine has praised Turkey’s offer to be a mediator, a military escalation in Ukraine could put Turkey in a very uncomfortable position regarding its relations with both Ukraine and Russia.
Erdogan’s government has a long list of interests to consider before weighing in on the crisis: the stability of the Turkish Straits and the Black Sea; the Akkuyu nuclear power plant; the security of gas supplies from Russia, tourism from both Russia and Ukraine; Russian imports of Turkish commodities; Ankara’s interests in Caucasus; ongoing military operations in Syria and Libya; as well as the growing market for Turkish-built drones in Ukraine. Even if all these Turkish interests could somehow be side-lined, Erdogan’s public rejection of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 makes him an unlikely mediator to Russia. Given the current state of the Turkish economy and the plethora of shared interests the country has with Russia, avoiding hostilities with Moscow is likely to be Ankara’s primary concern in managing these Black Sea relationships.
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Accident on US Carrier Leaves F-35 Sinking in the South China Sea
An F-35C fighter jet operated by the United States Navy has crashed into the South China Sea following a botched landing on the deck of an aircraft carrier. A statement released provided little information about the condition of the F-35C aircraft and the damage sustained by the USS Carl Vinson from which the aircraft was operating. The incident resulted in injuries to seven sailors, including the pilot, and a scramble to salvage the advanced fighter aircraft from the very shallow South China Sea.
The US has intensified naval drills in the South China Sea recently as Washington seeks to challenge China’s expanding maritime activities in its littoral waters. The exact location of the mishap is unknown, and the location of the crashed F-35 aircraft will indicate the kind of salvage operation the US will undertake. The fact that the fighter jet reportedly impacted the carrier deck before falling into the water suggests the aircraft remains largely intact. The US Navy is now trying to recover the remnants of the crashed F-35C, which is widely considered among the most advanced military aircraft in the world, before China is able to do so. While there has been no indication that Beijing is racing to salvage the aircraft, the close proximity of the incident to China’s own naval forces may complicate US salvage operations if Beijing chooses to attempt a salvage operation of its own.
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