In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, January 31st
Myanmar Military Extends State of Emergency, UK Makes Concessions to Restore N. Ireland Governance, and other stories.
Myanmar Military Extends State of Emergency
Myanmar's government has announced that it will extend the state of emergency for another 6 months through July 31st. This marks the 5th such extension since the military overthrew the previous government in a coup on February 1, 2021. The decision grants Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, continued authority to exercise full legislative, executive and judicial powers for the State Administration Council.
The extension of emergency powers and military rule comes amid growing unity and momentum among the armed resistance groups. Key ethnic groups and the shadow National Unity Government civilian authority have now offered negotiations with “responsible leadership” of the military. This joint position indicates strengthened cooperation across resistance factions to pressure the government. Regionally, the expanding control of border territories by ethnic armies threatens government revenues while providing strategic leverage for the resistance. This could raise the possibility of border tensions or intervention from neighbouring countries. The seizure of key China border trade zones risks Myanmar's critical economic relationship, vital for both countries. Thailand also faces border security and refugee challenges from conflict near its territory.
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UK Reaches Gas Storage Deal with Algeria's Sonatrach
The UK's Grain liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal has signed a 10-year deal with Algerian state-owned energy company Sonatrach to extend its long-term storage and redelivery capacity at the facility beyond January 2029. The agreement is for 125 gigawatt hours per day (GWh/d) of import capacity — equivalent to 3 million metric tons of LNG per year.
The UK and Europe more broadly have increased LNG imports to reduce dependence on Russian supplies. With the continent facing gas shortages heading into winter, new LNG import capacity and supply agreements with producers like Algeria and Qatar will backfill cancelled Russian pipeline deliveries. The UK's push to expand Grain LNG, and Algeria seeking new markets for its gas export volumes, reflect the geopolitical realignment occurring in European energy flows. The deal supports Sonatrach's efforts to diversify its LNG customer base beyond Algeria, and the UK's push to expand the Grain LNG terminal located in Kent. Sonatrach's 10-year Grain commitment provides some reliability, but Europe likely needs more African gas producers to scale export projects.
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France and Sweden Partner on Missile Systems
Sweden and France have signed a new strategic defence partnership focused on strengthening cooperation on anti-tank and air defence capabilities. The pact was agreed during French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Sweden this week. As part of the partnership, defence firms Saab and MBDA signed letters of intent to collaborate on delivering advanced anti-tank missile systems to the Swedish and French militaries. An initial contract has already been awarded to the companies for these weapons.
The partnership aims to leverage the military-industrial capabilities of both countries to address threats in Ukraine. Lighter infantry wielding anti-tank and air defence systems have proven effective against heavier armoured units. The Franco-Swedish defence collaboration appears targeted at replicating asymmetric tactics through missiles like the Akeron MP anti-tank platform. This deal signals tighter integration between Sweden's defence sector and NATO countries as Sweden pursues membership in the Alliance. Sweden has already inked statements of intent with the UK and US to increase defence collaboration on areas like air power. The partnership with France reinforces Sweden pivoting its neutral posture towards deeper NATO interoperability.
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Iraqi Militia Suspends Anti-US Attacks
Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah announced that it is suspending all military operations against US forces in the region. This decision comes after three US troops were killed in a drone attack near the Jordan-Syria border last week. An Iraqi official said the group's move followed intensive contacts by the Baghdad government with both US officials and Iraqi armed factions to prevent further escalation.
Kataib Hezbollah's announcement reflects delicate balancing for Iran's proxies and allies in Iraq. This suspension lets Kataib Hezbollah claim initiative to de-escalate, while reserving the right to restart attacks, framing any US strikes as aggression. For Iran, reining in Iraqi militias prevents undermining strategic influence cultivated in Baghdad. But Iran also risks losing credibility with its proxies if it appears to be abandoning them. China and Russia likely welcome easing Middle East tensions given oil and gas import dependence. The temporary move to curb militia attacks underscores complex layers of proxy warfare as the US and Iran continue their delicate shadow confrontation across the region’s conflict zones.
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UK Makes Concessions to Restore N. Ireland Governance
Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has agreed to restore the power-sharing government in exchange for changes to post-Brexit arrangements. The deal paves the way for the DUP to rejoin Northern Ireland's institutions, ending two years of political paralysis. It requires the UK government to implement legislation addressing DUP demands, including removing customs checks on goods moving between Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom.
This deal reflects growing pressure on the UK government to assure Northern Ireland's place within the Union after years of discord over post-Brexit trading arrangements. The DUP's leverage comes from its boycott, denying London a functioning power-sharing government in Northern Ireland. The deal trades DUP cooperation to restore governance for concessions remedying its concerns over Northern Ireland's status. This bargaining exposes underlying tensions between Northern Ireland's economic ties with Ireland and political-economic integration with the UK. Satisfying the DUP risks overstepping the UK's negotiated deal with the EU.
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Declining Global Support for Israeli Security Approach
Israel faces a declining international reputation and loss of allies long-term due to shifting demographic and geopolitical trends. There is falling public support for Israel in the West, particularly among younger generations, while emerging economies with growing global influence tend to view Israel unfavourably. Events like the current violence in Gaza further undermine Israel's standing and that of its backers.
Israel's heavy-handed military approach may prove unsustainable in an era of declining Western dominance. While countries like the US remain staunch allies, global power is shifting towards states more hostile to Israel. To secure its long-term future, Israel needs a less violent security strategy to rehabilitate its global image as well as that of its current allies. Israel may need to accept some security tradeoffs to gradually rehabilitate its standing. The status quo carries growing risks that require proactive mitigation. Failing to do so could fuel Middle East instability and complicate Israeli influence in a changing global landscape.