In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, January 10th
Ecuador Declares State of Emergency, Scientists Achieve Room Temperature Hydrogen Fuel Cell Breakthrough, and other stories.
Ecuador Declares State of Emergency
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa has declared a 60-day nationwide state of emergency, authorizing military deployment after a wave of violence perpetrated by militant groups. Attacks hit targets ranging from prisons to a television station and university campus. Noboa labeled over 20 transnational crime rings as terrorist groups and combatants, paving the way for an expansive crackdown.
The severe escalation follows prison riots and jailbreaks that unleashed chaos this week. While the harsh emergency measures may aim to restore order in the near term, they risk further polarization if seen as overly repressive. Meanwhile, ramped up security operations like checkpoints and curfews seem inevitable — likely slowing economic activity. But failure to constrain violent gangs could enable unchecked violence and growing instability. Either path spells turbulence ahead as Ecuador plunges deeper into internal armed conflict.
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Tajikistan Deepens Technology Ties with China and Russia
The Tajik government has started new partnerships with international telecommunications companies to significantly improve the country's limited internet infrastructure under a technology development agenda for 2024-2028. State-owned operator Tajiktelecom signed multiple deals with companies like China's Huawei, Russia's Piter IX and Cifra, and Kazakhstan's National Information Technologies for objectives spanning 5G network expansion training and e-governance systems.
This security partnership has notable significance amid Tajikistan's broader infrastructure overhaul. Closer technology collaboration with Russia parallels deepening military ties, as Tajikistan in recent years has granted additional basing rights and militia training support to Moscow. Meanwhile, the breakthrough deal with Huawei comes as China mounts a concerted effort to expand regional economic and connectivity leadership partly through digitization partnerships. With major powers elevating strategic influence in Central Asia both via security pacts and critical infrastructure, Tajikistan's overhaul carries multi-faceted implications.
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US Launches Partnership to Re-engage with Latin America and Africa
The United States has launched an economic initiative called the Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation spanning Europe, Africa, and the Americas to address shared interests like maritime sustainability. While not a standalone strategy, it signals more active re-engagement with long overlooked regions like Latin America and Africa. The partnership also fits into a wider recalibration of US foreign policy, prioritizing security and forming selective blocs in response to systemic globalization cracks.
Rather than trade access or pure market reforms, initiatives like the Atlantic pact, IMEC corridor and Indo-Pacific framework highlight pragmatic geo-economics. This shift acknowledges globalization's limitations, embraces minilateralism to balance powers like China and Russia, and drops idealism for calculated strategy. The Atlantic partnership specifically provides a framework for more regular North-South collaboration, echoing moves like India's inclusion in the Indo-Pacific. For the US, it's both an effort to address shared transcontinental interests and a placeholder vision of reintegrating the Atlantic periphery into its sphere of influence.
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North Korea Shifts Policy to View South Korea as Adversary
North Korea has begun shifting its propaganda and policy approach to frame South Korea as a hostile nation rather than a partner for potential unification. State media outlets are stripping away longstanding sections on reunification and downsizing government agencies focused on inter-Korean relations. At a recent political meeting, Kim Jong-un critiqued past unification efforts and said North Korea needs to reorient its outlook to align with its status as a “powerful country” focused on defending its dignity and interests.
These moves signify that North Korea is formalizing its view of the Korean Peninsula. Rather than prioritizing outreach or reconciliation with the South, Kim seems to be signalling a foreign policy pivot toward developing nations and socialist states. While closing the door on unification in the near future, this shift also portends a potentially more active North Korean role in exporting arms, sending labourers abroad, and involving itself in areas like Africa and the Middle East. An emboldened North Korea that sees less hope for diplomacy with Seoul and Washington could further destabilize the Korean Peninsula.
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US Faces Resistance in Assembling Naval Coalition
The United States is still facing resistance from European allies like Spain and France as it tries to assemble an international coalition to counter Houthi militia attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. While condemning the disruptions to shipping, Madrid and Paris oppose joining US-led naval operations without a concurrent ceasefire in the Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Their reluctance stems from seeing the maritime attacks as leverage for the Houthis and their backer Iran to demand an end to Israeli airstrikes. Entering another open-ended war with the battle-hardened Houthis based on the maximalist military goals of Israel's government seems questionable when diplomacy could achieve the same result. Though the protection of global shipping routes is a valid concern, both Paris and Madrid appear to have calculated that joining the coalition would entangle their forces in yet another Middle East quagmire rather instead of resolving the drivers of regional instability.
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Scientists Achieve Hydrogen Fuel Cell Breakthrough
Researchers in Japan have developed a solid material that can efficiently transport hydrogen ions (H-) at room temperature, overcoming a key barrier to practical hydrogen fuel cells. By modifying a lanthanum hydride compound with strontium and oxygen, the scientists created a crystalline electrolyte that allows rapid conduction of hydride ions without the need for continual hydration.
This discovery helps solve limitations around water requirements and temperature sensitivity that have constrained wider adoption of hydrogen energy solutions. The simplified room temperature fuel cell design promises major advances in safety, efficiency, and energy density. While work remains to improve performance and integrate appropriate electrodes, this marks an important step toward viable batteries, generators and potentially even hydrogen storage based on solid-state hydrogen technology. Given the versatility and transportability of the technology, this breakthrough may help unlock applications ranging from electric vehicles to large-scale clean energy plants.