In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, January 11th
CSIS Report Wargames Taiwan Strait War, The United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia to Cooperate in Mining Sector, and other stories.
CSIS Report Wargames Taiwan Strait War
In a wargame developed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the United States, Taiwan, and Japan were able to defeat a conventional amphibious invasion by China in most scenarios, but it came at a high cost with heavy losses for the US and its allies, significant economic devastation for Taiwan and heavy losses for China.
The wargame found that success in defence of Taiwan alone would not be enough for the US, emphasizing a need for Washington to strengthen deterrence in order to prevent the outlined scenario from happening. This study argues that a shared and transparent understanding of the operational dynamics of such an invasion is important to shape US policy and increase the sucess of deterrence.
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China Courting the Philippines in Bid to Secure Geostrategic Freedom
The recent visit of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to China, where they agreed to cooperate in peace and security operations and in developing gas and oil deposits in the South China Sea, suggest there may be more at play than a routine diplomatic meeting. In the past, relations between the Philippines and China have been strained, with Beijing unhappy about Manila's ties with the US and Manila angry about Beijing poaching in its territorial waters.
This visit suggests that China may be trying to reach an understanding with the Philippines to gain access to the 600 miles gap between Taiwan and the Philippines, as it is broader and more difficult to close than the 300-mile expanse south between the Philippines and Indonesia, that would help solve China's strategic problem of maintaining exports and access to the global sea lanes. This also raises questions about the intentions and costs of the US in this situation, as the Philippines would be more valuable to China than Taiwan and could be accessed without a potentially losing war.
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Japan and the United Kingdom Sign Military Access Deal
The prime ministers of the United Kingdom and Japan have signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), in which they pledged “unwavering commitment” to the security of the Indo-Pacific. The RAA allows the two countries to plan and conduct larger, more complex military exercises and deployments in the region, as well as to accelerate defense and security cooperation.
Both nations have been concerned about China's increasing military presence and expansion. As part of this agreement the UK's armed forces will be able to deploy to Japan. Both nations are also heavily invested in the newly formed Global Combat Air Programme aimed at developing next-generation fighters. The agreement also says about discussion of utilizing G7 partner to help Ukraine against Russia, and UK's Ministry of Defence considering sending tanks to Ukraine.
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Moldova’s Positive Relationship with Turkey
The Republic of Moldova has a strong partnership with the Republic of Turkey that is based on two main pillars: the relationship with Gagauzia, a region in southern Moldova that has striven for greater autonomy, and trade and investment.
Gagauzia, inhabited primarily by the Orthodox Turkic-speaking Gagauz people, is viewed as a bridge of friendship and cooperation between Turkey and Moldova. Additionally, Turkey is a significant importer of Moldovan goods and Turkish companies have invested in the country with Turkish investments in Moldova exceeding $300 million. The relationship with Turkey is important for Moldova as it does not fall under either the European or Russian bloc.
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The United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia to Cooperate in Mining Sector
The United Kingdom's Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy Department has established a partnership with Saudi Arabia to “deepen collaboration on critical minerals” such as graphite and lithium.
The UK hopes the deal will help reduce dependence on China, which currently dominates its mineral supply chain. The Saudi Public Investment Fund also announced a joint venture with the state-owned Saudi Arabian Mining Company to invest in global mining assets, specifically in iron ore, copper, nickel, and lithium. The partnership and venture are expected to be finalized later this year as part of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 economic strategy, which aims to diversify sources of minerals and increase the number of mineral production factories.