In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, July 20th
Brussels Asks EU Member States to Cut Gas Use by 15%, The DRC Joins the East African Community, and other stories.
Gazprom Declares Force Majeure on Gas Deliveries to Europe
Gazprom has declared force majeure on some gas deliveries to Europe. The move would protect the Russian natural gas company from compensation payments for unrealized deliveries due to “extraordinary” circumstances. The force majeure Gazprom declares that supplies via Nord Stream will be affected, with the hold on natural gas deliveries blamed on a delay in the return of a repaired turbine.
Currently, no Russian natural gas is flowing via Nord Stream due to regular maintenance work. However, the fear in Europe is that Russia’s Gazprom could cut natural gas flows via Nord Stream beyond the expected maintenance period due to a slow maintenance process at compressor stations. While there's still no strong indication that Russian gas supplies will cease, Gazprom’s force majeure declaration provides Russia the legal cover to halt energy supplies to the economic heart of Europe.
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Brussels Asks EU Member States to Cut Gas Use by 15%
The European Commission has urged EU member states to reduce their domestic natural gas demand by 15 percent over the coming months to secure winter stocks. Announcing an emergency plan parallel to a new round of sanctions, EU commissioners also requested special powers to impose compulsory energy rationing across the EU if Russia cuts off natural gas deliveries.
While EU countries have targeted Russian gold exports and frozen assets at Russia's largest bank in a new round of sanctions, there are concerns across Europe that Moscow will retaliate by cutting off all natural gas supplies. The special powers requested by the EU commissioners would work to impose compulsory energy rationing across member states in the event that “there is a substantial risk of a severe gas shortage” or an “exceptionally high demand of gas occurs” that threatens supplies. This would likely involve essential industries and services given priority while others would have to cut back.
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The DRC Joins the East African Community
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has become the newest member of the East African Community (EAC). Thanks to the DRC’s membership, the East African Community now extends from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean with Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and now the DRC making up the bloc.
The EAC was established in 1967 and “re-established” in 2000, and serves as one of the most integrated regional economic blocs on the African continent. Since the 1980s, efforts for African regional integration have focused on establishing functional economic integration and growth, with regional economic communities playing a central role in managing relations among between states. The EAC currently prioritises the implementation of a customs union, further integrating member state economies within the EAC’s Common Market Protocol, and working towards establishing a single currency across the EAC.
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Turkey Demands US Military Withdrawal from Northern Syria
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called on the United States to leave northern Syria, arguing that a US withdrawal would weaken terror activity in the region. According to Erdogan, discussions held in Tehran between Iran, Russia and Turkey as part of the Astana Process concluded that Washington must withdraw their forces from east of the river Euphrates.
Erdogan signalled that all three countries participating in the Astana Process were in agreement to push back against the activity of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the People's Protection Units (YPG), two militant groups supported by Washington. Erdogan claimed that US officers were still actively training members of the YPG and accused the group of “sucking the oil wells in the east of the river Euphrates” to finance their operations. Most surprise is the fact that, despite the differences in their positions on Syria, Russia, Iran and Turkey seem to share the opinion that the United States must leave this region, and all three may be willing to work to achieve that goal.
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