In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, June 2nd
Harsh EU sanctions likely to fall on Belarus, Australian war crimes investigation publishes internal report, and the US wants China to be part of any missile treaty concluded with Russia
Harsh EU Sanctions Likely to Fall on Belarus
As European leaders hope that the growing costs associated with the arrest of one Belarusian dissident will be enough to deter Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's behaviour in the future. But if brazen actions such as the May 23 arrests stifle dissent and weaken the threat against Lukashenko's regime, he may see the trade-off as a bargain. It all depends on the willingness of those involved to persist.
Belarus is already experiencing consequences for forcing a RyanAir flight to make an unscheduled landing in Minsk on May 23, to detain a high-profile dissident, Roman Protasevich, and his girlfriend, Sofia Sapega. Flights over Belarussian airspace are suspended and some airlines (KLM, Lufthansa, airBaltic) have suspended services to Minsk. Worse still, there is a chance that the EU will request a ban on all Belarussian carriers from travel in the bloc.
The European Union is also planning to sanction Belarusian officials behind the operation, and many in Europe are calling on European governments to sanction Belarus' potash industry, a critical natural resource Belarus relies upon for export, making up 7.84 percent of all Belarussian exports. Other key economic sectors likely to be targeted are oil and petrochemicals.
Belarus is also likely facing diplomatic expulsions from European cities that would complicate relations with other European countries, reduce services available to Belarusian citizens abroad and make a repeat of the May 23 incident more complicated by limiting the Belarusian intelligence service's presence abroad.
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War Crimes Investigation of Australian Soldiers May Be Complicated by Embassy Closure
The withdrawal of Australian troops from Afghanistan and the planned closure of the embassy in Kabul will complicate the task of investigators gathering evidence to prosecute soldiers alleged to have committed war crimes.
A four-year-long investigation into allegations that members of Australian special forces committed war crimes in Afghanistan, 25 soldiers stand accused of murdering 39 unarmed Afghan civilians or prisoners and cruelly treating two others.
The inquiry conducted found credible information about 23 incidents in which non-combatants or prisoners were unlawfully killed by or at the direction of Australian soldiers in circumstances which would almost certainly constitute war crimes.
A practice adopted by some soldiers of carrying ‘throwdowns’ — easily concealable weapons or equipment such as pistols, small handheld radios, weapon magazines and grenades — which would be placed with the body when the person killed was found to be unarmed. Teams of Australian investigators are said to be gathering evidence with a view to laying formal charges.
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United States Wants China to be Part of Any New Missile Treaties with Russia
Going into the June 16th Biden-Putin summit in Geneva, the relationship between Russia and the United States could hardly be called a relationship, and both are in desperate need of a framework for forward that doesn’t spill into open conflict. At core both still disagree on many fundamental issues, including Ukraine and Belarus. Arms control is one area where agreement could be found, and may be a part of the agenda for the US as it seeks to negotiate a favourable agreement that includes China.
The United States is likely to oppose any nuclear limitations attached to a potential deal involving both Russia and China, as China’s small arsenal would translate to either a rise in Chinese nukes to match the stockpiles of Russia and the US, or conversly a drastic and unprecedented reduction of nuclear arms by both Russia and the US. Neither scenario appeals to US policymakers.
The Arms Control Association’s director for disarmament and threat reduction policy, Kingston Reif, said that “holding any further limits on U.S. and Russia strategic nuclear forces hostage to the inclusion of China’s much smaller nuclear arsenal is a recipe for failure. China has made it clear it will not agree to such a trilateral arrangement.”
Reif predicts that Biden and Putin could use the summit as a platform for a potential future treaty aimed at bringing all US and Russian nuclear weapons under an arms control process. He said that “it is also possible that the two presidents could launch more formal talks on further arms control measures beyond New START.”
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