In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, June 23rd
Unsettling Signs of Friction in the Black Sea and Looking Beyond the Iranian Election
Unsettling Signs of Friction in the Black Sea
The Russian military has said one of its warships in the Black Sea was forced to fired warning shots and a warplane dropped bombs Wednesday to force a British destroyer away from Crimea, which Moscow claims as its territorial waters, but Britain has denied the Russian account and insisted that its ship was not fired upon.
It appears to be the first time since the Cold War that live ammunition is used by Moscow to deter a NATO warship, a sign of the precarious international environment we inhabit.
The Russian Defence Ministry said a patrol ship fired warning shots after the British destroyer HMS Defender had ignored a notice against intrusion and sailed 3 kilometers into the disputed territorial waters near Sevastopol. It said a Russian Su-24 bomber dropped four bombs ahead of the British ship’s path in a bid to change its course.
The British Ministry of Defence issued a statement claiming that the Russians were undertaking a “gunnery exercise” in the Black Sea and that they were provided with “prior warning of their activity.” But strangely, the British MoD contradicted the Russian account when they stated that “no shots were directed at HMS Defender” and that they “do not recognize the claim that bombs were dropped in her path.” In all, the British say that the ship was navigating through international waters.
There are also signs of some trickery at play here, with reports suggesting that the positions of two NATO ships were deliberately falsified near a Russian Naval Base. There is also an unverified recoding of the British-Russian radio engagement floating around the internet, as well as this unverified footage of warning shots being fired.
Whatever the obscured truth behind the dangerous manoeuvres, it is concerning that these kind of incidents are becoming commonplace. Not two weeks ago the US and Russia were blaming each other for a near collision that occurred between their ships in the East China Sea.
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Looking Beyond the Iranian Election
Iran has elected its new president, Ebrahim Raisi, who will assume the office on 3 August 2021. The new head of government will have the opportunity to revive the Iranian economy, improve diplomatic relations, and to strengthen Iran’s position in the wider Middle East. Political analyst Marwan Bishara, writing for Al Jazeera, goes through three possible scenarios that a Raisi presidency could bring.
The first would be an outcome where Raisi sets the priorities of his government toward economic reform, likely involving a push to secure a nuclear deal in exchange for the easing of sanctions. This would send a clear message that his government willing to give concessions to improve the lives of ordinary Iranians, who have suffered from tough sanctions. But Bishara notes that the likelihood of this scenario playing out is somewhere between zero and five percent.
The second would be a scenario where Raisi would choose to maintain the status quo by relying on the revenue derived from higher oil prices, dig in its heels and wait for the United States to reconsider its position on the JCPOA. This could involve a slow move toward reestablishing relations with key European powers on the basis of “mutual respect and mutual interest.” Bishara foresees this as a likely outcome of the coming Raisi presidency, and gives the likelylihood of this outcome a thirty-five percent chance.
The third would see the Raisi government double down on hardline conservative views, resist foreign pressures while at the same time supporting militias across the region in a bid to balance against its adversaries. The Raisi government could also take advantage of the instability plaguing its Arab neighbours, particularly at a time of limited US military disengagement. As US interests and capabilities are increasingly fixated on the Indo-Pacific, there are opportunities on the horizon for Iran if they can be seized. On the likelyhood of this outcome, Bishara thinks this scenario has a sixty-five percent chance of playing out.
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