In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, June 29th
Turkey Lifts Veto over NATO Accession of Finland and Sweden, Saudi Arabia Expresses Support for Egypt in Nile Dam Dispute, and other stories.
Turkey Lifts Veto over NATO Accession of Finland and Sweden
Turkey lifted its veto over the joint bids of Finland and Sweden to join the Western alliance after the three nations agreed to protect each other’s security by signing a trilateral memorandum. The memorandum, signed by the foreign ministers of Finland, Sweden and Turkey, comes after long discussions ahead of a NATO summit taking place in Madrid, and will pave the way for Finland and Sweden to formally join the military alliance.
Turkey’s main demands involved a request for the Nordic countries to stop supporting Kurdish militant groups harbouring on their territory and to lift their bans on arms sales to Turkey. The terms of the deal are said to involve Sweden intensifying work on Turkish extradition requests and amending Swedish and Finnish law to toughen their approach to Kurdish militant groups. The resolution marks a triumph for diplomatic efforts undertaken by the US and the UK to seal the Nordic accession as a way of solidifying their response to Russia. The accession of Finland and Sweden will give NATO military superiority across the Baltic Sea, and allow NATO to threaten Russia’s arctic capabilities in the years ahead.
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US Increases Military Footprint in Europe
The United States will significantly increase its military presence in Europe on a long-term basis to bolster regional security after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at the opening of NATO’s annual leaders' summit in Madrid, US President Joe Biden said steps will be taken that will “further augment our collective strength” and raise the number of US troops stationed in Europe to roughly 100,000.
The US president said Washington will be establishing a permanent military headquarters in Poland, sending two F-35 fighter jet squadrons to the UK, and send more air defence capabilities to Germany and Italy. Moreover, the number of US Navy destroyers in Spain will be increased to six from four, and the US will also be rotating more military assets to Romania and the Baltic region. US officials argued that such an increase in permanent troops based in Europe is consistent with a 1997 agreement between NATO and Russia that provides guarantees to Moscow not to permanently base combat troops in Eastern Europe.
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Saudi Arabia Expresses Support for Egypt in Nile Dam Dispute
Since Ethiopia first announced it was going to build Africa’s largest hydropower dam on the Blue Nile, the prospect has loomed over Egypt as an existential threat. In the ten years since, Ethiopia has failed to reach an agreement with Egypt and Sudan on how quickly its reservoir should be filled or on how the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will be operated.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has decided to weigh in on the issue, and has officially declared its support for Egypt’s position GERD crisis by publicly backing all measures taken by Cairo to protect its national security. The Saudi position was voiced in a joint statement following a meeting between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The Saudi stance on the GERD comes amid increased Emirati-Saudi competition for obtaining investments and assets in Egypt. For Cairo, the Saudi support is a welcome sign after efforts to get the United Arab Emirates’ to advocate the Egyptian position internationally have failed.
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Fighting Erupts in Disputed Region Between Sudan and Ethiopia
After Sudan accused Ethiopia of capturing and executing Sudanese soldiers captured in Al-Fashaqa earlier this week, the two countries have exchanged artillery fire across the disputed region. The dispute over al-Fashaqa, which lies within Sudan’s international borders but is settled by Ethiopian farmers and militias, has escalated in recent years in tandem with a diplomatic spat over Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Sudan’s armed forces fired heavy artillery during clashes in the disputed eastern region bordering Ethiopia. Early reports indicated that Sudan was able to capture Jabal Kala al-Laban following an artillery barrage and an air raid. But Addis Ababa has claimed that Sudanese forces had crossed into Ethiopian territory and that the Sudanese casualties resulted from a skirmish with local militias, thereby denying its soldiers were involved in any incident. Following the outbreak of violence, Sudan’s government said a formal complaint with the United Nations Security Council over the killings had been filed.
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