In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, June 21st
Kazakhstan Withdraws as Host for Syrian Peace Talks, EU Governments Agree on 11th Package of Sanctions Against Russia, and other stories.
Kazakhstan Withdraws as Host for Syrian Peace Talks
Kazakhstan has announced its decision to stop hosting talks aimed at resolving the 12-year-long Syrian conflict. Since 2017, the country has provided a platform for negotiations involving Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iran. Kazakhstan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the talks have accomplished their mission, citing the creation of de-escalation zones, the reduction of casualties, and Syria's recent return to the Arab League as evidence of their success. Russia's envoy to Syria expressed surprise at Kazakhstan's decision, stating that the venue for future talks has yet to be determined.
The latest round of talks held in Astana witnessed discussions on the restoration of relations between Turkey and Syria and was deemed “constructive” by Turkey, Russia, and Iran. The improved ties between Syria and Arab countries that previously supported opposition groups fighting against the government were also acknowledged as a positive development. As the conflict has displaced millions, neighbouring countries like Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq have expressed their hopes for a swift end to the conflict and the safe return of refugees. While the end of Kazakhstan's hosting of the talks marks a shift in dynamics, Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iran appear determined to maintain momentum in resolving the Syrian conflict.
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Targeting Wealth Managers to Disrupt Russian Financial Networks
In the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, NATO member states have been grappling with the challenge of imposing effective sanctions on the associates of Vladimir Putin. Finding a way to make these measures impactful has been a topic of debate, considering the ease with which assets can be concealed within the global offshore system, making enforcement of sanctions challenging. However, recent research suggests a potentially more effective approach: directing attention towards the professional wealth managers who serve wealthy Russians.
The study uncovers that wealth managers play a critical role in connecting the network, managing the majority of clients and coordinating with each other through intricate legal structures. Rather than focusing solely on Putin’s allies, their study suggests targeting the wealth managers as a viable strategy for disrupting the funds and restricting access to assets. While the effectiveness of sanctions remains a subject of debate, historical evidence suggests that targeting the flow of wealth can weaken support for leadership. By strategically sanctioning wealth managers, NATO member states could directly undermine the support that Russian elites provide to the Russian government, and potentially foster divisions within Russia's business community.
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EU Governments Agree on 11th Package of Sanctions Against Russia
European Union governments have reached an agreement on the 11th package of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions package introduces a ban on transit through Russia of an expanded list of goods and technology related to Russia's military sector. Notably, it enables restrictions on the sale of dual-use goods and technology to third countries that may sell them to Russia. The package also extends the suspension of EU broadcasting licences for five Russia media outlets and prohibits access to EU ports for ships suspected of carrying Russian cargo.
The primary objective of this latest round of sanctions is to prevent countries and companies from evading existing measures. The agreement faced initial challenges from Hungary and Greece, who objected to the inclusion of their companies as sponsors of war on Ukraine's list. However, Ukraine removed the Greek shipping firms from its list, gaining support from Athens for the package. Hungary backed the sanctions despite one of its banks remaining on the list, with the intention to revisit the issue during discussions on EU financial aid for Ukraine. The draft also initially included eight Chinese companies, of which five were removed after negotiations, while the remaining three, suspected of having Russian ownership, were retained. The EU expects China to exert pressure on these companies to cease their activities undermining sanctions.
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UAE Defence Firm and Brazilian Navy Sign Anti-ship Missile Deal
A defence firm based in the United Arab Emirates, EDGE, has announced a strategic partnership with the Brazilian military to develop long-range anti-ship missiles. This collaboration comes as the UAE strengthens its ties with the BRICS alliance, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The partnership involves co-investment in missile development, with EDGE also providing anti-jamming technology. The signing ceremony took place in Brasília and was attended by officials from both countries.
The growing relationship between the UAE and Brazil is reflected in their expanding trade ties. Brazil is the UAE's top trading partner in Latin America, with bilateral trade reaching over $4 billion in 2022, a 32% increase from the previous year. The strengthening of political ties is further demonstrated by the upcoming visit of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to the UAE, highlighting a continued commitment to the strategic partnership established between the two countries in 2019. The partnership also extends to international forums, as both countries will work together on the United Nations Security Council to promote their interests during their non-permanent seats for 2022-2023.
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Navigating Complexities in the US-India Partnership
In the mid-1970s, India faced a political crisis that drew concerns and threats from the United States. Fast-forward to the present day, and the relationship between the two powers has significantly evolved. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the United States and his meeting with President Joe Biden signifies that ties are strengthening between the two countries. Today, the US-India relationship encompasses economic, political, and military aspects.
Trade between the US and India has reached record levels, making the US the largest trading partner for India. Investments have also grown substantially, with both countries mutually benefiting from economic collaborations. Both countries have invested significantly in each other's markets, with defence becoming the most prominent form of bilateral cooperation. However, as the partnership deepens, India asserts its own interests, no longer subordinating itself to the US or its allies. The complex dynamics between India, China, and Pakistan add intricacies to this evolving relationship.