In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, June 30th
The Rising Geopolitical Significance of Rare Earth Elements and Turkey Likely to Maintain Military Presence in Libya
The Rising Geopolitical Significance of Rare Earth Elements
Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are increasingly becoming a central facet of a geopolitical struggle by virtue of their value in the modern age of technology. The 17 different REEs have received increasing attention from academics, analysts and the media due to their widespread application in modern technology. More recently, the focus of much of the REE-related discussion has revolved around the rise of China.
Given that competition between the United States and China appears to be the geopolitical conundrum of the first half of the 21st century, many academics and analysts in the US have stressed the dangerous implications of China’s monopoly on REEs. This monopoly is considerable, with China possessing roughly 44 million metric tons of REE reserves, which is a considerable portion of the 120 million metric tons estimated global reserves.
The US was once the leading producer of rare earths until China’s REE production started ramping up over the course of the 1980s and 1990s. The Mountain Pass Mine located in California used to be the world’s largest producer of REEs, but, unable to compete with Chinese REE exports, was forced to close down. While today the California mine is once again operational, it remains partly owned by a Chinese company — a serious concern for US policymakers seeking to shift supply chains away from China.
Although China’s slice of the pie has decreased since the early 2000s, China still holds a strong hand in the global supply of REEs. For the US, a lack of access to REEs may result in considerable adverse “economic, military, and political implications.” For this reason, US policymakers are seeking to formulate a coherent REE strategy which will reduce dependence on China for the supply of REEs.
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Turkey Likely to Maintain Military Presence in Libya
Last week, negotiations over Libya’s political future resumed under the second Berlin Conference. During this round of negotiations, Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu expressed his country’s hesitance to a withdrawal of Turkish troops. This meant that at the conclusion of the conference, under Article V concerning the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Libya, the joint document included a footnote expressing Turkey’s legal reservations toward withdrawing its troops.
Turkey insists that its military forces maintain a presence in the country — giving Turkish military personnel a unique status in the shape of a formal invitation from Libya’s governing authorities. Given that the reservation is noted in the final document, Turkey now possesses a legal mechanism by which it can maintain a military footprint in Libya via a reservation in international law — a caveat to a state's acceptance of a binding agreement.
While the document agreed upon in the conference is not legally binding, Turkey is nonetheless demanding that its presence in Libya be legitimized and the agreements that the Turkish government made with the Government of National Accord (GNA) in late 2019 be recognized as legally binding. Having the veneer of international legitimacy allows Turkey to continue to develop a tangible de jure case for maintaining a military presence in Libya going forward.
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