In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, June 7th
Rival Factions Reach Agreement on Elections in Libya, Turkmenistan and Pakistan Seek Revival of TAPI Pipeline, and other stories.
Rival Factions Reach Agreement on Elections in Libya
Envoys from rival factions in Libya have reached an agreement on the legal steps to hold presidential and legislative elections. The elections, originally scheduled for December 2021, were postponed due to disagreements over key issues, including candidate selection. Libya has been plagued by intermittent conflict since the 2011 overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, with various militias aligned with foreign powers fuelling the divisions.
While the recent agreement marks a significant breakthrough in the United Nations-led effort to hold elections this year, it does not resolve all the underlying issues that have hindered previous attempts. The agreement still needs to be ratified by Libya's parliament, the House of Representatives, and contentious matters like the participation of figures such as Khalifa Haftar in the elections remain unresolved. The new UN envoy, Abdoulaye Bathily, initiated the current election process in February, aiming to reach an agreement by mid-June. The country is currently divided between an interim government in Tripoli and another in the east led by Khalifa Haftar.
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Turkey's Syria Policy Driven by Migration and Kurdish Autonomy
The recent elections in Turkey have been heavily influenced by key geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing Syrian war and its aftermath. With Turkey hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees, the issue of migration has become a significant concern, triggering anti-refugee sentiments in many parts of the country. Notably, the ruling AKP party has shifted its approach towards migration, reflecting the broader political competition driven by the contentious topic. Moreover, Turkey's policy towards Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria has also played a crucial role.
The sustainability of Turkey's Syria policy remains uncertain. Despite threats of military incursion, Turkey has faced challenges in garnering necessary support from key stakeholders such as Russia, Iran, and the United States. Concurrently, efforts have been made to reconcile with the Assad regime, aligning with broader regional normalization and alliance-building initiatives. However, disagreements persist, including Damascus' demand for the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria. This complex situation poses challenges for Turkey's future Syria policy, necessitating a delicate balance between safeguarding border security, preventing Kurdish autonomy, and pursuing reconstruction efforts.
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Turkmenistan and Pakistan Seek Revival of TAPI Pipeline
Turkmenistan and Pakistan are engaged in talks to revive the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) pipeline, a major energy project spanning over 1,100 miles (1,770.28 km). The pipeline aims to transport 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from Turkmenistan's Galkynysh Gas Field to the Indian city of Fazilka, passing through Afghanistan and Pakistan. The potential transit revenues could constitute a significant portion, possibly 80-85%, of Afghanistan's central budget, motivating efforts to secure the pipeline's route.
Since its inception in the 1990s, the TAPI pipeline has faced obstacles in its implementation. Construction began in 2018 but was halted due to security reasons after workers were killed by unknown assailants. However, the recent withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and the Taliban's takeover of Kabul have renewed discussions on the project. Russia has shown interest in the project, viewing it as an opportunity to expand its influence in South Asia and fulfil its strategic goal of gaining access to the Indian Ocean through the development of a north-south transit corridor. India, however, has expressed concerns about the logistical challenges and political uncertainties associated with sanctioning a pipeline passing through rival Pakistan.
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Senegal Closes Consulates Abroad After Attacks
The Senegalese government has temporarily closed its consulates in Bordeaux, Milan, Paris, and New York following a series of attacks that have raised concerns about potential future unrest. The closure of consulates and the deployment of security forces in Dakar indicate the government's proactive measures to maintain stability amid escalating tensions.
The attacks, reportedly carried out by supporters of opposition leader Sonko, resulted in significant damage to the general consulate in Milan, including the destruction of passport-making machines and identity cards, as well as an assault on the consul general. These incidents highlight the deep political divisions and uncertainties faced by Senegal as it approaches upcoming elections, with Sonko's opposition party calling for supporters to rise up against the government. The government's response and the opposition's call for resistance suggest the potential for further clashes and unrest in the coming months, raising questions about the security measures in place to protect Senegalese diplomatic missions.
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Armenian Prime Minister Offers to Recognize Azerbaijan's Gains
A recent change in stance by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan offers a new opportunity for peace in the long-standing conflict over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Pashinyan's government has shifted its position by offering to recognize the territorial boundaries of Azerbaijan, including Nagorno-Karabakh, which his predecessors had always sought to avoid. This change presents a challenge and an opportunity to broker a comprehensive peace deal. Recent talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan, facilitated by the US, EU, and Russia, have yet to yield a comprehensive agreement.
Reaching a final peace accord won't be easy. Azerbaijan has been effectively blockading the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, resulting in severe shortages of energy, medicine, and food for the indigenous Armenian population. International actors will likely play a significant role in any formal resolution to the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The engagement and commitment of international actors, along with Russia's involvement as a mediator, may contribute to a lasting resolution of the conflict and the establishment of a sustainable peace framework. However, failure to include these guarantees may lead to further bloodshed and draw in regional powers such as Iran and Turkey.