In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, June 14th
Xi Jinping Emerges as Potential Mediator in Ukraine, German Foreign Minister Faces Challenges in Latin America, and other stories.
The Abraham Accords Bolster Israel-Arab Defence Cooperation
The Abraham Accords have played a significant role in deepening economic and defence ties between Israel and Arab states. Approximately 25 percent of Israel's $12.5 billion defence exports in 2022 came from Arab states that normalized relations with Israel under the Accords. Israel's defence ministry has reported a 50 percent increase in the price tag compared to the previous three years, with drones accounting for 25 percent of the exports and missiles, rockets, and air defence systems making up 19 percent. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Morocco, and Bahrain are among those to strengthen defence cooperation with Israel.
Despite recent tensions in the occupied West Bank and Arab states' reluctance to join a US and Israeli-backed defence group known as the “Middle East NATO,” defence and commercial have continued to progress. Gulf states, such as the UAE, have been cautious about overt military cooperation with Israel to avoid provoking Iran, their mutual rival. While defence and economic ties have expanded, regional tensions and the delicate balance of power continue to shape the strategic landscape. The outcome of ongoing negotiations, particularly concerning Iran and Saudi Arabia, will have significant implications for the region's stability and the future trajectory of relations between Israel and its Arab neighbours.
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Xi Jinping Emerges as Potential Mediator in Ukraine
While major players like the United States, Russia, and the European Council have expressed their commitment to the war in Ukraine, it may be Chinese President Xi Jinping who holds the key to ending the war. Despite NATO’s scepticism, China's economic influence over Russia and Ukraine gives President Xi the potential to bring the parties to the negotiating table and ensure compliance with any peace agreement. If successful, a peace conference hosted by President Xi would not only mark a turning point in the Ukraine conflict, but also solidify China's rise as a global power.
China's growing geopolitical power provides both the means and motivation for mediating an end to the fighting in Ukraine. As Russia's chief customer for commodity exports and Ukraine's largest trading partner prior to the war, China can exert commercial pressure on both parties to pursue peace. Moreover, China has a vested interest in global economic stability, as disruptions caused by the conflict in Ukraine have contributed to rising food prices and debt crises in low-income countries involved in China's Belt and Road Initiative. With its economic prowess and the potential to reshape Eurasia through infrastructure investments, China's diplomatic influence is on the rise.
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Turkey Reaffirms Support for Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus
Turkey appears set to maintain its long-standing position on the Cyprus question. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently expressed unwavering support for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) during his recent visit to the northern part of the island. Erdogan emphasized the necessity of recognizing the TRNC as a precondition for any negotiations with the internationally recognized government of Cyprus. This firm stance indicates that progress in discussions between Turkey and the southern Cypriot government regarding Cyprus' status is unlikely in the near future.
Cyprus has been divided since 1974 when Turkey responded to a coup by Greek Cypriot nationalists attempting to unite the country with Greece. The northern part of the island, predominantly inhabited by Turkish Cypriots and Turkish settlers, declared itself the TRNC in 1983. However, the TRNC's existence is only recognized by Turkey, while the European Union considers the entire island as part of its membership. The situation is further complicated by the presence of a UN buffer zone that separates the internationally recognized southern half from the northern region. Previous attempts to resolve the issue, including a UN plan for reunification in 2004, faced significant opposition from Greek Cypriots, highlighting the complexities and challenges of reaching a comprehensive settlement.
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German Foreign Minister Faces Challenges in Latin America
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock's inaugural visit to Latin America highlighted challenges and setbacks, particularly in Brazil. Baerbock's objective to persuade President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to align against Russia was met with a rebuff, as she was denied a meeting and a joint press conference. This indicates a possible decline in Germany's influence in the country. Additionally, in Panama, Baerbock criticized China's influence and expressed concerns about infrastructure project cancellations due to US pressure.
Despite Germany's focus on climate and energy policies in Latin America, the trip did not yield clear outcomes, leaving uncertainties about the extent of her ministry’s achievements. These developments raise questions about Germany's influence in Brazil and reflect the evolving landscape of international relations and the complex interactions between major global powers. Baerbock received a rebuke in Brasília, where she publicly lectured her Chinese counterpart, Qin Gang, on human rights issues. The Brazilian government did not grant her a single joint press conference, and she had to express her criticism of Brazil's stance on the Ukraine war alone in front of the Brazilian foreign ministry. These incidents indicate potential challenges for Germany's influence in Brazil, as the country focuses on closer cooperation within the BRICS framework and intensifying its ties with Africa.
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China Offers Oil-for-Projects Deals in the Middle East
China's push for oil-for-projects deals in the Middle East has gained momentum, with a particular focus on countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq. These agreements involve Chinese companies investing in infrastructure projects in exchange for a long-term supply of oil. Discussions between senior officials from Iraq and China have gone beyond the existing framework, encompassing various sectors such as oil and gas projects, banking, financing, and the strategic development of airports and seaports. With the Middle East offering abundant oil and gas reserves at low lifting costs, China sees these partnerships as crucial for securing vital resources.
China's influence in the Middle East has been growing, exemplified by its role in brokering a significant deal that led to the resumption of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This breakthrough, coupled with China's existing involvement in Iran's energy sector, has paved the way for similar agreements with Iraq. Given the close ties between Iraq and Iran, China's expansion into Iraq appears as a natural extension of its growing influence in the region. However, China has adopted a cautious approach to avoid adverse reactions from the United States, which still sees potential economic and political opportunities in Iraq. Chinese companies have been actively involved in infrastructure projects in regions like Basra and Dhi Qar, contributing to the broader 'oil-for-reconstruction and investment' agreement signed between Iraq and China in 2019.