In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, June 8th
Pakistan’s Water Crisis, Russia Halts Fisheries Deal with Japan, EU Obstructs UN Efforts to Deliver Ukrainian Grain via Belarus
Pakistan’s Water Crisis
In the years ahead, a water crisis is expected to cause serious problems to socioeconomic and political conditions in Pakistan. This crisis will most directly affect Pakistan’s agriculture sector, which contributes to 23 percent of the country’s gross domestic product and employs 42 percent of its labour force. Worse still, widespread water shortages may quickly transform into an existential threat to energy and food security, and therefore national security.
Water scarcity is already a reality in Pakistan as the country ranks among those deemed as ‘extremely high water risk’ countries of the world. Over 80 percent of the total population of Pakistan already faces some degree of water scarcity at least one month out of the year, and the situation may deteriorate much further in the years ahead. In addition to surface water, Pakistan’s groundwater resources are overdrawn in order to facilitate a steady supply of water for irrigation. For leaders in Islamabad, water crisis and its management should be expected to play a key role in the coming years as Pakistan engages with actors at the international and national level to tackle the water crisis before it is too late.
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Russia Halts Fisheries Deal with Japan
Russia’s foreign ministry has said it is suspending an agreement with Japan that granted fishing rights to Japanese fishermen in the vicinity of the disputed Southern Kuril islands. Moscow has accused the Japanese government of freezing cooperation payments usually made as part of the fishing deal. Russia's decision to suspend the agreement further strains bilateral ties between the two countries.
Relations between Tokyo and Moscow have deteriorated since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which Japan has joined others in condemning. Following Japan’s imposition of sanctions on Russia, Moscow placed Japan on a list of “unfriendly countries,” and relations since then have only worsened. Moscow has withdrawn from economic cooperation projects and halted talks aimed towards a peace treaty resolving the status of the disputed Kuril islands. Japan's Foreign Ministry responded to Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement by calling the move “unacceptable” and urging Moscow to abide by the agreement. Energy and fishing are central pillars in the two countries' economic relationship, and cooperation across both sectors is falling rapidly.
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EU Obstructs UN Efforts to Deliver Ukrainian Grain via Belarus
The European Union is blocking UN efforts to resume the transport of Ukrainian grain to world markets via the Black Sea. UN Secretary General António Guterres has endorsed a plan that would see Ukraine’s huge grain reserves transit Belarus to ports at the Baltic Sea, yet Brussels has refused to lift its sanctions on Belarus, effectively preventing the plan from being carried out.
The export of Ukrainian grain is constrained by a Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports and the presence of naval mines laid down by Ukraine to prevent Russian attacks from the sea. Given the situation in the Black Sea, negotiations appear to be a necessity for the grain to be able to reach buyers elsewhere. Belarus has expressed a willingness to organize the transportation of the grain across its territory, but in return is demanding that the current sanctions on some of its exports are lifted. However, the EU has refused to consider lifting the sanctions on Belarus, stating that both “member countries as well as the Commission” consider a relaxation of sanctions against Belarus to be “categorically out of the question.”
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