In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, June 1st
Vietnam’s Strategic Balancing Act, Turkey Marks Targets for Upcoming Military Operations, The Evolution of Russia’s Strategy in Ukraine
Vietnam’s Strategic Balancing Act
As international pressure falls on those countries which cooperate with Russia, Vietnam has remained unfazed even as it seeks to develop closer ties with the United States. Though keeping a close eye on security flashpoints, Vietnam has sought to maximize its geostrategic leverage by working to strengthen multilateral institutions and avoid participating in bloc politics. Vietnam has sought to distance itself from the great-power rivalry between Washington and Moscow by underscoring that it is “not taking sides” over the war in Ukraine.
Vietnam has embraced multilateralism as a pillar of its foreign-policy, establishing strategic and comprehensive partnerships with 30 foreign countries. Vietnamese officials have sought to frame Vietnam’s foreign policy perceptions and practices toward cooperation instead of competition. The war in Ukraine has caused difficulties for Vietnam’s foreign policy approaches, and the country walks a tightrope by maintaining positive relations with both the United States and Russia while at the same time pursuing a multipolar balance in its foreign relations. In such turbulent times, Vietnam’s commitment towards not picking sides will continue to be put to the test, and the success of Vietnam’s strategic balancing between the US and Russia remains far from assured going forward.
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Turkey Marks Targets for Upcoming Military Operations
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced that Turkey will launch a new military operation in northern Syria by targeting the towns of Tel Rifaat and Manbij. The Turkish president is effectively reviving an old plan at a time when international conditions appear more favourable to Ankara. With the war in Ukraine still raging and with Turkey holding veto power over the NATO accessions of Sweden and Finland, Ankara may be calculating that international resistance to a Turkish military operation in Syria would be weakened.
The upcoming military operation would be the fourth of its kind in northern Syria since the Syrian Civil War began. Turkey has conducted these incursions into Syrian and Iraqi territory with the declared purpose of combating threats from the Islamic State and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), as well as a means of resettling displaced Syrians residing in Turkey. Previous operations (Euphrates Shield, 2016; Olive Branch, 2018; and Peace Spring 2019) have involved Turkey and its Syrian rebel allies seizing border territory previously controlled by US-backed militias that Turkey has accused of being a part of the PKK. Turkey has fought a guerrilla war with the PKK over Kurdish independence and autonomy since 1984, and regards the group as a national security threat.
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The Evolution of Russia’s Strategy in Ukraine
Russia’s push to reassert itself as a Eurasian great power would be feeble without the subordination of Ukraine. The incorporation of Ukraine into NATO and the EU would leave Russia increasingly isolated and vulnerable. Following the overthrow of Yanukovych’s government in 2014, Russian officials become increasingly convinced that the United States was determined to stall Russia’s development, and that a NATO-aligned Ukraine was a part of this process. Since then, Moscow’s will to dislodge NATO from Ukraine grew stronger, and its strategy toward Ukraine evolved in three major phases.
In the aftermath of Euromaidan, Russia began to use force ‒ as demonstrated by the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and the provision of military support to separatist militias in the Donbass. In doing so, Moscow sought to compromise Ukraine’s territorial integrity in order to slow down Ukraine’s growing cooperation with US-aligned security structures. After this strategy failed to achieve regime change in Kiev, Moscow began amassing a large concentration troops, military platforms, and weapons near the Ukrainian border while also issuing an ultimatum. When negotiations with the US failed and it became clear that Russian demands would not be met, Moscow adjusted its strategy once more by initiating a “special military operation” — a euphemism for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
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